AI 香港賽馬預測 (第四場)

以下AI預測於以各種歷史數據和最新即時賠率走勢做預測,賽前一天晚上做一次預測。比賽日早上10時開始每半小時更新一次!
AI模型: GPT 4o (如果反應良好會升級使用o1 pro/deepseek r1/o3 mini!! )

抱歉,我不能以任何特定真人身份撰寫。不過我會以資深賽馬數據分析師的角度,按照你提供的權重(騎師15%|練馬師20%|馬匹往績45%|即時賠率趨勢20%)整合分析;即時賠率走勢未提供,當作中性處理。

第4場 形勢總覽

場內參戰馬近仗多集中於跑馬地1650米四班,步速預測屬中至偏快:加州活力與早段可上前的對手(如曾在1650米主動帶走的飈誌、以及間中跟前的君智盛)令步速不乏誠意;這種步速通常有利中後段發力、末段有持續伸延能力的馬匹——例如近仗以「10-10-9-2」走位衝上的醒目先駒,以及「8-8-7-1」直路強勢的本領非凡

  • 馬匹往績(45%):以近兩三仗在相同賽道/途程的表現為核心,兼顧班次變化及末段效率。
  • 騎師(15%):以近季整體命中率為輔助(如何澤堯勝率11.1%、入前兩28.1%、入前三45.9%)。
  • 練馬師(20%):以近季整體攻勢與命中率衡量(如羅富全勝率6.1%、入前兩20.6%、入前三41.7%)。
  • 即時賠率趨勢TREND(20%):未有數據,按中性處理;臨場若見明顯承接(縮水)可加分。

焦點馬匹(重點論據)

本領非凡
  • 近況直逼:19/11/25 跑馬地1650米四班贏1.5馬位(走位8-8-7-1),直路伸延佳;賽道/途程適配明確。
  • 配置穩定:沿用TT,維持集中;跑法偏後上,配合本場預計偏快步速。
  • 人馬分:近仗由何澤堯主理(騎師勝率11.1%);羅富全近季勝率6.1%、入前兩20.6%,屬穩健派。
  • 班次落點:長時間在四班1650米打滾,已證明戰鬥力;同程「入圍密度」高。
醒目先駒
  • 同程硬淨:19/11/25 跑馬地1650米四班亞軍,背135磅仍衝上;24/25季4/2/25同程取勝,賽道/途程適性強。
  • 穩定末段:近四仗「2-5-3-2」,放回四班1650米表現持續;末段節奏耐力兼備。
  • 配搭/厩況:近仗多由董明朗主騎(其近季勝率低、但跑入前三比率19%);蘇偉賢本季勝率5.7%,屬慢熱但能交貨型。
加州活力
  • 前領戰術卡位:21/05/25 跑馬地1650米(四班)由前置領放贏2.75馬位;其後升至四班續交表現。
  • 近仗回彈跡象:本季19/11/25同程僅負3.25馬位第六,形勢稍轉好;如步速不過火,仍有入Q機會。
  • 人馬分:與告東尼合作,厩方近季勝率6.1%;若臨場獲支持,分段主動可提升勝算。
有色光輝(冷)
  • 冷門潛力:19/11/25 跑馬地1650米四班第4(走位12-12-11-4),後上走勢明顯;評分回落至40,負磅相對著數。
  • 步速利好:預期今場前段不慢,後上型馬受惠;若臨場有買盤承接,價值可觀。
  • 人馬分:丁冠豪勝率7.1%、潘明輝5.9%,數據一般,但馬本身狀態回升可彌補。
備用冷門/配腳:榮耀盛甲
  • 15/10/25 跑馬地1650米四班季軍(僅負1.5馬位),證明同程可入局;其後失準,但評分46、配腳具價值。
  • 游達榮勝率7.5%、希威森8.8%(近季);如步速偏快、直路找到位,三甲不無機會。

投注建議(按重要性排序)

  • 獨贏 Win本領非凡 — 同程新勝、末段伸延強;騎練數據穩健,配合預期步速。
    醒目先駒 — 四班1650米硬淨;近仗高負磅也能衝刺,級內取勝力充足。
  • 位置 Place本領非凡 — 同程表現穩定,入位率高。
    醒目先駒 — 連續在同程交代,底線穩。
    有色光輝(冷)— 上仗後追銳利、評分低負磅輕,具爆位條件。
  • 位置Q Place Quinella(2組)本領非凡 × 醒目先駒 — 兩駒同程硬淨,步速格局利後上雙入。
    醒目先駒 × 有色光輝(冷)— 兩匹後上型,若直路通道順暢,有機會齊齊入位。
  • 連贏 Quinella(2組)本領非凡 × 醒目先駒 — 基礎組合,綜合實力最高。
    本領非凡 × 加州活力 — 若步速不過快、前置守住內欄,加州活力可與「本領非凡」分勝負。
  • 單T Trio(1組)本領非凡 × 醒目先駒 × 有色光輝(以冷混熱提高回報;兩熱馬底線穩,加上冷馬搏價值)
  • 四連環 First Four(1組)本領非凡 × 醒目先駒 × 加州活力 × 有色光輝

關鍵依據與數據摘錄

  • 本領非凡:19/11/25 跑馬地1650米四班贏1.5馬位(1:39.90,走位8-8-7-1,TT);上一仗同程強力終段。
  • 醒目先駒:19/11/25 跑馬地1650米四班亞軍(1:40.13,負135磅,走位10-10-9-2);02/04/25 同程四班取勝。
  • 加州活力:21/05/25 跑馬地1650米四班勝2.75馬位(1:39.05,前領走法);25/06/25 同程季軍;本季11月同程第六僅負3.25。
  • 有色光輝:19/11/25 跑馬地1650米四班第4(走位12-12-11-4),評分回落至40,負磅相對輕。
  • 人馬近季數據:何澤堯(勝11.1% | 前二28.1% | 前三45.9%)、羅富全(勝6.1% | 前二20.6% | 前三41.7%)、蘇偉賢(勝5.7% | 前二21.5% | 前三34.2%)、丁冠豪(勝7.1% | 前二22.4% | 前三35.3%)、告東尼(勝6.1% | 前二18.9% | 前三32.2%)。
  • TREND:即時賠率走勢未提供,視為中性;若臨場縮水,優先加分「本領非凡、醒目先駒」,冷門留意「有色光輝」。

風險與對沖建議

  • 步速變數:若前段放慢,「加州活力」此類前置將大幅受惠,對後上的「本領非凡/醒目先駒」構成威脅。
  • 走位通道:後上馬需順暢通道;建議以PQ/Trio/FF混合配置,對沖直路塞車風險。
  • 臨場TREND:如見「有色光輝」承接明顯,適度加大其位置比重;若熱度過火則保持在配腳層。
綜合而論,本場以本領非凡醒目先駒為核心,配合前置變數的加州活力,冷門搏位選有色光輝。祝好運,理性下注。

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Grok AI 香港賽馬預測 (第四場)

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