英偉達受惠於芯片出口限制鬆綁及英美貿易協議？細節才是關鍵
細節決定成敗
近日，英偉達（NVIDIA，NVDA）股價衝破了技術阻力區，進一步站穩於新支撐區之上。觸發這波半導體股上升的主因，是特朗普總統計劃撤銷拜登時代的芯片出口限制。這些限制原本是為了防止中國在先進芯片領域追趕美國。
現時，市場上的「動能黨」（momo crowd）因為出口限制放寬而瘋狂買入半導體股，但他們普遍缺乏深入分析。根據我們的分析，特朗普其實未必會比拜登對中國芯片出口更寬鬆。他只是想將原有的規則簡化並加強效力，新一輪限制甚至可能比以往更嚴厲。
同時，動能黨亦忽略了Arm Holdings（ARM）發出的收入預測令人失望這一事實。要知道，Arm設計的芯片佔全球九成智能手機市場，預市交易時段其股價已下跌約7%。
今早美股另一推動力，是美英達成貿易協議。特朗普總統將於美東時間上午十時公布細節。不過，理性投資者要注意：
– 英美貿易協議本來就被視為最容易達成的協議，因為雙邊貿易一直相對平衡。
– 特朗普承諾協議「全面且完整」，但市場普遍預期內容可能有限。
– 與歐盟的貿易談判將更困難，而最重要的中美貿易協議則充滿挑戰。值得留意的是，中國國家主席習近平與俄羅斯總統普京會面時，已明言要共同對抗美國所謂的「國際霸凌」。
此外，特朗普計劃大幅壓低藥價，預料將對輝瑞（PFE）、默克（MRK）、禮來（LLY）、諾和諾德（NVO）、百時美施貴寶（BMY）、吉利德（GILD）及Moderna（MRNA）等製藥股帶來壓力。
就業方面，美國最新首次申領失業救濟人數為22.8萬，低於市場預期的23.8萬，顯示就業市場暫時仍然穩健。
印巴局勢
印度與巴基斯坦一邊試圖降溫，一邊又互相以無人機攻擊對方。印度股市跌0.4%，巴基斯坦更挫7%。審慎投資者應密切關注局勢發展。
英倫銀行減息
英倫銀行（BOE）如預期減息至4.25%。
「七巨頭」資金流向
早段交易時段，資金正流入英偉達（NVDA）、蘋果（AAPL）、亞馬遜（AMZN）、谷歌（GOOG）、Meta（META）、微軟（MSFT）及特斯拉（TSLA）。同時，SPDR S&P 500 ETF（SPY）及Invesco QQQ Trust（QQQ）亦錄得正資金流。
動能黨與聰明錢
投資者若能掌握SPY和QQQ的資金流向，已可領先一步；若能進一步追蹤「聰明錢」何時買入股票、黃金、石油，更能把握先機。黃金最熱門ETF為SPDR Gold Trust（GLD），白銀則為iShares Silver Trust（SLV），石油則是United States Oil ETF（USO）。
比特幣狂熱
比特幣正逼近10萬美元大關，相關概念股如MicroStrategy（MSTR）、Coinbase（COIN）、Riot Platforms（RIOT）、MARA Holdings（MARA）等亦受追捧。
Arora保護帶及投資部署建議
投資者應著眼未來，而非只看過去。我們的專有「保護帶」策略，將所有數據、指標、新聞、模型等整合，方便投資者作出明智決策。
建議繼續持有質素高、長線的持倉。根據個人風險偏好，可考慮以現金、國庫券、短線戰術交易，以及短中線對沖組成保護帶，既可參與升市，又能自保。
保護帶比例可因年齡及風險承受能力調整。年長或保守者可設高比例保護帶；年輕或進取者則可設低比例。若不做對沖，現金比例可略高於建議，但不宜過高。
值得提醒，若現金不足，未來有新機會時便難以把握。調整對沖水平時，亦要考慮個別股票（非ETF）止蝕數量，對高Beta股（即波幅大於大市的股票）則應設較闊止蝕範圍。
傳統60/40組合
經通脹調整後，現時長期持有債券的風險回報並不吸引。堅持傳統60%股票、40%債券組合的投資者，應只選高質債券，且期限不超過五年。進階者可將債券ETF作為短線戰術部署，而非長線策略。
編輯評論：市場樂觀背後的隱憂與新動態
今次英偉達等半導體股的急升，表面上是特朗普撤銷出口限制的利好，但細讀政策方向，實際新限制可能更嚴。這反映市場情緒（尤其動能黨）往往只看標題，不理深層邏輯。英美貿易協議雖然被視為突破，但真正的全球經貿博弈，還是要看中美關係變化。至於比特幣即將衝上十萬美元，這種狂熱氣氛未必能持續，投資者要警惕資產泡沫。
本文亦點出，傳統投資組合在現時環境未必合時宜，建議靈活運用現金及對沖工具。對於香港投資者而言，這正是值得深思的啟示——在全球政經局勢多變下，單靠過往經驗或跟風行動，隨時錯失大機遇，甚至陷入風險陷阱。未來，懂得拆解「細節」與靈活調整部署，才是真正贏家。
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![{
"intro": "Create an ultra realistic 8K UHD DSLR photo based on the attached image as a reference of facial features, maintaining 100% likeness.",
"subject": {
"identity": "A stylish beautiful woman portrayed as Cleopatra performing a sacred night-time royal dance, embodying divine seduction, power, and celestial authority.",
"angle": "Full-body high-fashion editorial portrait captured at a cinematic 3/4 angle, ultra-crisp clarity with no blur.",
"pose": {
"body_position": "She is captured mid-dance inside a temple courtyard at night, her body angled gracefully, hips grounded, torso lifted, creating a powerful and sensual silhouette.",
"movement": "Her arms are raised in slow ceremonial motion while one leg steps forward, fully revealing her feet and lower legs as part of the ritual stance.",
"expression": "A calm, hypnotic, commanding gaze directed toward the camera—quiet dominance wrapped in sensual mystery."
}
},
"appearance": {
"outfit": "An ultra-bongga Cleopatra couture gown with an all-crystal bodice that fits like jeweled armor. Thousands of hand-set crystals, diamonds, and glass stones in gold, champagne, clear, and iridescent tones form sacred Egyptian motifs—cobras, sun disks, lotus symbols—entirely through crystal placement. The neckline is daring yet elegant, supported by invisible illusion mesh. From the waist, the skirt opens into flowing sheer silk and organza panels in ivory and soft gold, designed with a high front opening that intentionally exposes her legs and feet during movement. Crystal chains and beaded fringe sway rhythmically with every step, enhancing sensual motion.",
"accessories": "A dramatic Egyptian ceremonial headpiece with gold and crystal detailing, an oversized layered gold collar necklace, sculpted crystal arm cuffs, finger armor rings, a crystal-and-gold waist belt, and delicate gold anklets accentuating her bare feet.",
"hair": "Her hair is sleek, glossy, and perfectly controlled, styled to balance the weight of the crystal headpiece while allowing elegant movement.",
"makeup": "Ultra-glam, colorful Egyptian night makeup—bold elongated black kohl eyeliner, intense eyeshadow layered in turquoise, emerald, sapphire blue, violet, and metallic gold. Beneath the eyes, intricate ceremonial ink drawings in fine black and gold lines inspired by ancient Egyptian markings. Skin is luminous with molten-gold highlights, brows strong and defined, lips finished in a sensual nude-bronze satin."
},
"props": {
"ritual_elements": [
"Burning incense bowls releasing thick aromatic smoke",
"Golden sistrum placed near the dance space",
"Tall ceremonial torches lining the temple floor"
]
},
"background": {
"macro_environment": "A grand ancient Egyptian temple courtyard at night, reserved for sacred royal rituals.",
"midground_details": "Towering sandstone columns, massive statues of Isis and Hathor, carved temple walls, flowing linen drapes, and ceremonial platforms illuminated by firelight.",
"micro_elements": "Torch flames reflecting off crystal surfaces, fine dust particles glowing in the night air, incense smoke wrapping around her legs and feet, detailed stone floor textures beneath her bare feet, crystal fringe in motion, and sharply defined shadows—everything rendered in extreme detail with zero blur."
},
"lighting": {
"type": "Cinematic night lighting using torches, oil lamps, and subtle moonlight.",
"effect": "Firelight ignites the crystal bodice with prismatic sparkle while moonlight softly outlines her legs and feet, creating a dramatic, sensual, and divine atmosphere."
},
"camera": {
"camera_type": "DSLR",
"resolution": "8K UHD",
"lens": "50mm prime lens",
"aperture": "f/8 for full-body and environment sharpness",
"iso": 100,
"shutter_speed": "1/200s to freeze elegant motion clearly",
"focus": "Extreme sharp focus on crystal bodice, facial features, legs, feet, and temple details, no bokeh, no blur"
},
"style": "Ultra high-fashion editorial, night temple ritual, all-crystal couture, sexy yet sacred, ancient Egyptian royalty reimagined, cinematic realism, extremely detailed, sharp, iconic"
}](https://ssfuture.shop/wp-content/uploads/ai_gen_1766006158-167x300.png)
