美國聯儲準備應對流動性危機!




美國聯邦儲備局「絕對」準備介入以防流動性枯竭 — 投票成員

美國聯邦儲備局(Fed)準備利用其龐大的貨幣政策工具,以防止金融和經濟狀況迅速惡化,但這一行動只會在流動性枯竭或市場出現混亂的情況下進行,一位高級中央銀行官員表示。

在接受《金融時報》訪問時,波士頓聯邦儲備銀行行長蘇珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)表示,中央銀行「絕對會準備」在必要時支持市場。

雖然一般認為聯儲局隨時準備迅速行動以避免市場混亂,但柯林斯的言論恰逢股票和債券資產的拋售,這引發了對美國金融系統健康狀況的擔憂。

不過,柯林斯指出,聯儲局「並未看到流動性問題」。如果情況發生變化,政策制定者將擁有「應對市場運作或流動性問題的工具」。

聯儲局的影響力

聯邦儲備局的政策對全球市場產生引力,這是通過美金的貨幣流動性,即美元在投資和交易中的使用便利性來實現的。流動性對數字資產價格,包括比特幣,有著重大影響。

根據倫敦金士頓大學教授趙金莎(Jinsha Zhao)和苗建(J Miao)於2024年發表的一篇學術論文,美元的貨幣流動性「對比特幣價格有著顯著影響」。

在COVID-19疫情之後,流動性條件對比特幣價格的影響力增強,佔據了比特幣價格波動的65%以上。

研究人員表示:「在疫情之後,貨幣流動性成為比特幣價格最重要的決定因素,甚至超過了比特幣網絡的基本指標。」

宏觀分析師林·奧登(Lyn Alden)在九月的一篇文章中也得出了類似的結論,稱比特幣是「全球流動性的晴雨表」。

奧登指出,比特幣價格與全球M2(即主要全球經濟體的廣義貨幣供應量)之間的關係。

比特幣的交易方向與全球流動性一致的比例超過83%。根據Cointelegraph在三月初的報導,全球流動性的增加和商業周期的回升歷來對比特幣價格具有強大的預測能力。流動性和商業周期的趨勢顯示,比特幣的價格在第二季度可能會迎來回升。

在當前的經濟環境下,聯儲局的政策動向對市場的影響不容忽視。隨著全球流動性狀況的變化,投資者應密切關注比特幣的價格走勢,因為它可能成為未來市場動向的指標。這也反映了比特幣不再僅僅是一種投資工具,而是成為了全球經濟流動性狀況的指標,這一點值得投資者深入思考和分析。

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