比特幣價格因美聯儲降息前景黯淡而下跌1.5%,88,000美元仍在關注中
比特幣在1月10日經歷了新的波動,因為美國的宏觀經濟數據削弱了加密貨幣資金流入的希望。比特幣結束了連續14根綠燭的走勢,市場對2025年進一步降息的可能性進行了重新定價。
根據Cointelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView的數據,BTC/USD在12月非農就業數據超出預期後,突然下跌了1,500美元。這一數據顯示出勞動市場的強勁,對風險資產造成了壓力,並且失業率數據也低於預期。
市場普遍認為,美聯儲現在不太可能像之前預期的那樣迅速或大幅降息。這反過來減少了資金流入比特幣和其他加密資產的可能性。來自CME集團的FedWatch工具顯示,美聯儲在1月會議上即使是小幅0.25%的降息機會也只有2.7%。
非農數據強勁,市場反應冷淡
“非農數據表現強勁,而失業率數據卻偏低,這對經濟的強勁表現是個好消息,那為什麼比特幣和整體市場會下跌呢?很簡單,這表明2025年降息的可能性減少了。”交易資源Material Indicators的聯合創始人Keith Alan在X平台上這樣寫道。
Alan承認,假期季節可能影響了這些數據,而任何對市場的影響可能很快會被美國當選總統唐納德·特朗普的新任期所掩蓋。“值得注意的是,假期季節通常意味著招聘增加,這對報告有影響。”他補充道,“還要指出的是,市場正在猜測整個年度的情況,儘管我們在10天內將迎來一個新政府,這將對經濟產生深遠的影響。”
在附帶的兩個圖表中,其中一個顯示了Binance BTC/USDT訂單簿的流動性狀況,88,000美元和90,000美元現在成為支撐區域。這次宏觀經濟的下跌打破了比特幣價格行為的異常日子,該日的每小時時間框架內出現了14根連續的綠燭,這是自2017年以來的首次。
然而,交易者對此反應平淡,BTC/USD整體在熟悉的範圍內交易,支撐和阻力水平清晰可見。“市場在這些較小的時間框架內要麼上漲,要麼下跌,最終許多人都會被割韭菜。”受歡迎的交易者Daan Crypto Trades告訴他的X平台追隨者。“我的建議是放大視野。”
分析師預測比特幣價格反轉的高概率
另一位交易者和分析師Rekt Capital則持樂觀態度。他分析了日線圖,指出BTC/USD相對強弱指數(RSI)指標上出現了持續的看漲背離。早些時候,Cointelegraph報導稱,每小時RSI達到了自10月初以來的最低水平。
“比特幣在91,000美元的支撐位顯示出看漲背離的跡象。”他在當天報導道。
另一則X平台的帖子重申了從歷史上看,比特幣牛市中出現的回調現象。“比特幣在價格發現的第7周開始了目前的-15%回調。這次回調的時間與歷史趨勢一致。”Rekt Capital確認道。“這是本周期的首次價格發現修正,因此反轉的概率很高。”
這篇文章不包含投資建議或推薦。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險,讀者在做出決策時應進行自己的研究。
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在當前的市場環境中,比特幣的波動性再次凸顯了宏觀經濟數據對加密貨幣市場的影響。隨著美聯儲的政策走向不明,投資者需要更加謹慎。市場的情緒往往受到短期數據的驅動,但長期來看,政策的變化和經濟環境的變遷將更具影響力。比特幣的歷史表明,回調往往是牛市的一部分,這也許為投資者提供了進一步的機會。分析師的預測雖然樂觀,但仍需警惕市場的潛在風險和不確定性,這是每位投資者在進行決策時必須考慮的因素。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。

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