傳播嘅骨幹係咩？

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學一件離譜的事




想知一個謠言點樣喺網上同現實世界之間爆發傳播？我哋要拆解時間、多層網絡同傳播背後嘅神秘骨幹！

學習路徑

  • 第一課：傳播嘅骨幹係咩？
  • 第二課：點樣搵出隱形嘅骨幹？
  • 第三課：搵到骨幹之後，有咩用？

第一課：傳播嘅骨幹係咩？

嗨！同學，我哋今日要學一個好犀利嘅概念：「時間性多層傳播骨幹」。聽上好似好複雜，但係我哋用費曼技巧，由簡到深，包你一睇就明！

首先，想像一個「傳染病」——唔一定係病毒，可以係一個 idea、一個 meme、一個新聞，甚至係一個公司失敗嘅消息。呢啲嘢點樣喺我哋嘅社會入面傳開去呢？

傳統嘅分析方法，就好似你睇一幅靜態嘅地圖，上面畫咗啲點（人）同線（關係）。但係，現實世界係動態嘅！你唔會淨係喺 Facebook 貼文，你又會用 WhatsApp 傳訊息，又會同朋友食飯傾偈。呢啲就係「多層次」嘅互動。而且，你唔會 24 小時都喺線上，你同朋友嘅關係可能會隨時間改變。呢啲就係「時間性」。

所以，「時間性多層傳播骨幹」就好似喺一幅極其複雜、不停變化嘅立體交通圖入面，搵出真正「最重要」嘅幾條路。呢啲路唔係最長或者最闊，但係佢哋喺特定時間，連接咗唔同嘅交通層面（例如地鐵、巴士、的士），將最多嘅「乘客」（即係信息或者病毒）由 A 點運到 B 點。呢啲關鍵路徑，就係所謂嘅「骨幹」。

簡單嚟講，佢就係一個隱形、按時間排序嘅子網絡，佢話俾我哋知，一個嘢點樣「實際上」跨過唔同嘅溝通渠道，喺對嘅時間，傳播開去。

明白未？呢個「骨幹」就係傳播事件嘅真正精華，搵到佢，就等於搵到傳播嘅「命脈」。

思考題: 如果一個謠言只係喺一個群組入面流傳，從未跨到其他平台（例如由 Facebook 去到 WhatsApp），咁佢會唔會有「多層傳播骨幹」？點解？

第二課：點樣搵出隱形嘅骨幹？

好，上一課我哋知「骨幹」係咩。今課我哋就嚟睇下，點樣由一團亂麻嘅網絡入面，將呢條隱形嘅「主幹道」抽取出嚟。

想像你係一個偵探，要調查一個病毒式影片點樣爆紅。你手上有成千上萬條數據：邊個喺邊個時間喺 YouTube Like 咗、邊個喺 WhatsApp Share 咗、邊個喺公司茶水間提過。如果全部畫出嚟，肯定係一圐一匐，乜都睇唔到。

搵「骨幹」嘅過程，就好似用一個超強嘅「濾鏡」。呢個濾鏡會問三個核心問題：

1. **時間點：** 呢個傳播係咪喺一個極短嘅時間內發生？好似一個爆發，好過緩慢滲透。例如，一個明星喺 8 點整發文，然後 8 點 05 分就有人傳到第二層，8 點 10 分傳到第三層。呢啲有時間順序嘅連結，重要性會高啲。

2. **跨層次：** 呢個傳播有無跨過唔同嘅平台？例如，由一個公開嘅論壇（第一層），去到一個私人嘅聊天群組（第二層）。呢啲「跨界」嘅行為，就好似喺兩個唔相連嘅城市之間起咗條橋，通常係引爆大規模傳播嘅關鍵。

3. **流量：** 呢條路徑係咪承載咗最大量嘅「傳染流」？我哋可以計算每條連結對整個傳播事件嘅貢獻度。好似一條高速公路，就算佢好短，但如果佢承載咗九成嘅車流，佢就係骨幹。

我哋會用啲複雜嘅演算法，將啲重要性低嘅、冇時間關聯嘅、或者單層面嘅連結全部「剪走」。最後剩下嚟嘅，就係一個精簡、清晰、帶有時間戳記嘅網絡圖。呢個圖，就係「時間性多層傳播骨幹」。

佢可能會揭示一個好驚訝嘅事實：例如，引爆全場嘅，可能唔係個最多 Like 嘅 KOL，而係一個平時好低調、連結好少嘅人，但佢喺一個關鍵時刻，將信息由一個小群組傳到一個大群組。呢個人，就係所謂嘅「橋樑節點」。

總結嚟講，搵骨幹就係一個「去蕪存菁」嘅過程，幫我哋由混亂中睇清傳播嘅真正脈絡。

思考題: 喺搵「骨幹」嘅過程中，如果我哋設定嘅「重要性」門檻太高，會唔會將一啲潛在但重要嘅傳播路徑錯過？呢個取捨點應該點樣諗？

第三課：搵到骨幹之後，有咩用？

搵到「骨幹」，唔係純粹為咑 academic，而係有極大嘅實際用途！今課我哋就嚟睇下，呢個工具可以點樣俾我哋更精準咁去「干預」同「預測」。

想像你係衛生部門嘅官員，要阻止一場新嘅流感爆發。傳統方法，可能會叫大家戴口罩、洗手，呢啲係「廣泛式」干預，好似用水淹浸成個城市，雖然有效，但代價好大。

但如果你有「傳播骨幹」圖，你會發現：

* **精準打擊：** 圖表可能話俾你知，病毒嘅主要傳播路徑，係經由幾個特定社區嘅「晨運公公」，喺朝早 7 點到 8 點之間，由公園（第一層）帶返去屋企（第二層）。咁，你唔需要封城，你只需要喺呢幾個公園入口，喺呢個時間段，做更嚴格嘅體溫檢測或者派發口罩，就可以用最少嘅資源，截斷最主要嘅傳播鏈。呢個就係「精準干預」。

* **預測爆發：** 骨幹圖會顯示出啲「橋樑節點」。你可以監察呢啲關鍵人物。一旦佢哋被感染，你就知道大規模爆發嘅風險急升，可以提前啟動應急預案。就好似睇到天氣圖上有一個小型氣旋，你就知道要準備防風。

* **商業應用：** 一間公司想推廣新產品。佢哋可以用呢個方法，搵出影響意見領袖嘅「骨幹」。可能發現，最有效嘅方法唔係投放大量廣告，而係資助某個特定時間嘅線下聚會，讓參加者（橋樑節點）喺聚會後將體驗分享到佢哋嘅私密群組入面，從而引爆口碑。

* **打擊假新聞：** 社交平台可以用骨幹分析，快速識別假新聞嘅傳播核心。可能發現，一個嚴謹嘅新聞稿，被一個有影響力嘅帳號，喺一個特定時間篡改內容後，跨平台傳播。平台可以針對性地對呢條骨幹路徑進行標記或者限制，而唔係影響所有相關詞彙嘅討論。

總括嚟講，「時間性多層傳播骨幹」俾我哋一個「超能力」。我哋唔再係對住一團迷霧，而係有咗一張清晰嘅「作戰地圖」。我哋可以睇到傳播嘅弱點，然後用最聰明、最省力嘅方式去影響佢。呢個係單純靜態或者單層網絡分析，絕對提供唔到嘅洞察力。

思考題: 除咗我哋提到嘅例子，你仲可以想像到啲咩領域，可以運用「時間性多層傳播骨幹」呢個概念去解決問題？

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