新比特幣鯨魚重塑市場結構




新比特幣大戶重塑BTC市場結構:數據分析

比特幣的鏈上數據顯示出新的比特幣大戶擁有50%的實現市值,這突顯了資本進入市場的方式正在發生變化。

市場分析

新近發布的比特幣鏈上數據顯示,市場的高峰或低谷不再是傳統的周期性波動,而是資本進入市場的結構性轉變。

**主要觀察點:**

* 近50%的比特幣實現市值現在歸屬於「新大戶」,這表明網絡的成本基礎正在結構性重置。
* 短期持有者(STH)的供應在30天內增加了約100,000 BTC,達到歷史新高,顯示出強烈的需求。

新大戶重塑比特幣的成本基礎

來自CryptoQuant的數據顯示,現在被歸類為新大戶的比特幣持有者幾乎佔據了50%的實現市值。實現市值是指比特幣在最後一次交易時的價格所計算的價值,這一變化反映了資本進入網絡的來源,而非誰擁有最多的比特幣。

在2025年之前,新大戶的實現市值不超過22%。過去的牛市通常由在低價位積累並逐步分配的舊大戶推動,而現在,新大戶則在更高的價格水平上投入大量資本。

值得注意的是,在市場回調期間,新大戶持有的實現市值份額持續上升,這表明比特幣的整體成本基礎正在重新固定,而不是單純的投機性波動。

短期需求激增,大戶在85,000美元附近買入

短期持有者的淨頭寸變化(30天)已達到近100,000 BTC的歷史新高。這一指標追蹤155天內持有的比特幣供應的淨變化,反映出新進投資者的積極累積。

這種增長通常發生在高動能階段,當需求超過可用供應時,即使波動性仍然較高。

同時,最近的Binance流入數據顯示,155天以上的比特幣大多保持不活躍,這表明長期持有者並未進行分配。相反,出售主要來自於對價格疲弱反應的短期持有者。

更重要的是,約37%的比特幣流入Binance來自於大戶錢包(1,000–10,000 BTC),這表明大型資本在此過程中積極執行並尋求流動性。

來自Hyblock的數據進一步強化了這一觀點。累積成交量變化(CVD)顯示,持有100,000至1,000萬美元的錢包本周錄得1.35億美元的正向變化。而零售(0-10,000美元)和中型交易者(10,000-100,000美元)則分別錄得8400萬美元和1.72億美元的負向變化。這意味著大型投資者在吸收賣壓的同時,小型參與者則減少了風險敞口。

結語

這些數據顯示出比特幣市場正在經歷一個重要的轉型期,新的大戶正在重塑市場的結構,這可能會影響未來的價格走勢。隨著市場動能的增強和需求的上升,投資者需要密切關注這些變化,以便更好地把握投資機會。這不僅是對比特幣的影響,也可能對整個加密貨幣市場產生深遠的影響。

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