比特幣ETF需求低迷,市場前景堪憂




比特幣ETF需求停滯,美國政府關閉的樂觀情緒未能提升市場情緒

根據市場分析師的說法,比特幣ETF的資金流入和策略上的比特幣收購一直是推動比特幣今年動力的主要因素。

目前,對於現貨比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)的需求不足,令市場對比特幣在今年剩餘時間的前景感到擔憂,儘管美國政府似乎即將結束其為期41天的關閉。

周一,美國參議院批准了一項資金方案,使國會更接近結束關閉。根據CBS新聞的報導,該法案現在將進入眾議院進行全面投票,最早可能在周三進行。

參議院多數黨領袖約翰·圖恩表示,他希望通過的過程會是“幾小時,而不是幾天”,在周一早上的參議院會議中,他這樣表示。

儘管美國傳來樂觀消息,現貨比特幣ETF的投資在周一卻保持平穩,僅有120萬美元的資金流入,根據Farside Investors的數據顯示。

Capriole Investments的創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲表示:“儘管美國的關閉似乎即將結束,而標準普爾500指數和黃金的價格也大幅回升,但比特幣ETF卻沒有任何出價。”他補充道,這種情況不應該持續下去。

根據標準普爾全球數字資產研究部門負責人Geoff Kendrick的說法,現貨比特幣ETF的資金流入是2025年比特幣動力的主要推動力。

根據Cointelegraph在10月28日的報導,黑石集團的基金是所有ETF發行者中唯一一個年初至今(YTD)資金流入為正的,該基金獲得了281億美元的資金,而其他發行者則累計出現127萬美元的資金流出。

分析師稱這是中期整合,而非2025年牛市結束

雖然一些投資者對牛市周期的結束感到擔憂,但Bitfinex交易所的分析師將這視為“中期整合階段”,而不是一場崩盤。

分析師告訴Cointelegraph:“目前的調整結構與2024年6月和2025年2月觀察到的情況驚人地相似,這兩次都是比特幣在恢復和更深的收縮之間的關鍵轉折點。”他們補充說:“目前的回調與之前中期回撤的平均幅度密切相關,自2023年牛市開始以來,每次調整階段的幅度大約達到22%。”

值得注意的是,當比特幣價格跌至100,000美元時,約72%的比特幣供應仍然是盈利的,這對於中期整合來說是一個良好的信號,但更廣泛的復甦需要來自機構和零售參與者的“新一輪需求流入”。

這篇文章提醒我們,儘管市場面臨挑戰,但比特幣的基本面仍然強勁,尤其是在機構投資者的支持下。隨著市場的波動,投資者需要保持警惕,並密切關注即將到來的政策變化和市場動態,以便在這個不確定的環境中做出明智的投資決策。

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