比特幣OG鯨魚持續「套現」，威脅BTC價格跌至90K
長期持有者在2025年已經從比特幣中套現了數百萬美元，這可能會危及BTC價格的回升。
市場分析
**主要要點：**
* 年長的比特幣鯨魚正在大量拋售，每小時超過1,000 BTC的套現。
* 比特幣的熊市旗形模式預示著價格可能下跌至89,600美元。
比特幣的價格面臨進一步下跌的風險，因為最古老的鯨魚持續拋售他們的BTC儲備。Capriole Investments的聯合創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲在社交媒體上表示，「超級鯨魚正在套現比特幣」，這引發了對BTC價格潛在影響的擔憂。
比特幣OG鯨魚持續拋售
BTC/USD交易對目前的價格比其歷史最高點126,000美元低18.7%。這一跌幅部分歸因於老鯨魚錢包的大量流出。
一些人認為這是牛市周期中的正常回調，而另一些人則認為這一修正是由長期持有者的拋售所驅動。
愛德華茲分享了一張圖表，顯示「OG」比特幣持有者的鏈上支出情況——這些持有者的資產持有時間超過七年。圖表中有兩個顏色編碼的類別：橙色代表1億美元的拋售，紅色代表5億美元的拋售，清楚地顯示出這些長期投資者的拋售規模。這一拋售始於2024年11月，並在2025年加劇。
愛德華茲表示：「2025年的圖表非常豐富多彩，OG們正在套現。」
根據Glassnode的數據，自1月以來，這些鯨魚每小時拋售超過1,000 BTC的事件持續存在。
「這一周期的關鍵區別在於，這些OG鯨魚高支出事件在整個周期中發生得更加頻繁，這表明持續的分配。」
例如，鏈上分析平台Lookonchain突出了「比特幣OG奧文·甘登」，這位鯨魚在星期六轉移了3,600 BTC，價值約3.72億美元，其中500 BTC（約5168萬美元）已經存入Kraken。
儘管存在這種拋售壓力，市場卻顯示出異常的韌性，Willy Woo指出，「所謂的OG拋售」僅僅是BTC從未觸碰過的地址轉移出來。
Woo建議，長期持有者的BTC轉移可能是為了轉移到taproot地址以進行量子安全交易。他指出，這些轉移也可能涉及保管輪換或為BTC庫存公司提供資金，而非實際銷售。
比特幣「熊市旗形」目標90,000美元
來自Cointelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView的數據顯示，比特幣目前在一個熊市旗形中交易，這暗示著下一步可能會出現顯著的下行走勢。
熊市旗形是一種向下延續的模式，通常在顯著下跌後出現，隨後在價格範圍的低端進行整合。
如果跌破支撐線100,650美元，比特幣可能會下跌至89,600美元，這相當於當前價格水平的12%的跌幅。
根據Cointelegraph的報導，比特幣必須在本周收盤時高於50周EMA（目前為100,900美元），以避免進一步修正至92,000美元或更低的情況。
這篇文章不包含投資建議或推薦。每項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做出決策時應進行自己的研究。
—
這篇文章揭示了比特幣市場中長期持有者的行為對價格的影響，特別是當這些「OG鯨魚」開始大量拋售時，市場的反應往往會引發恐慌和不安。這不僅僅是價格的波動，更反映了市場情緒的變化。對於投資者來說，理解這些行為背後的動機和市場動態，將有助於在未來的投資決策中保持警覺。隨著市場的成熟，長期持有者的行為模式可能會成為分析市場趨勢的重要指標。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。
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