以太坊短倉或成比特幣對沖新策略

10x Research認為短期做空以太坊是比特幣的對沖策略

根據10x Research的報告,以太坊面臨結構性風險,因為比特幣吸引了大部分機構資本,這使得ETH成為尋求對沖數字資產市場風險的投資者的潛在做空機會。

報告指出,隨著比特幣持續吸引機構的財庫資金,以太坊相關的公司開始出現資金不足的情況,這使得以太坊成為投資者的短期做空選擇。報告中提到,短期做空以太坊可能是對比特幣的明智對沖策略。

報告指出,比特幣仍然是機構投資的主要焦點,而以太坊則顯示出結構性弱點。分析師表示,圍繞以太坊的“數字資產財庫”敘事使得機構積累ETH,然後再將其分發給散戶投資者,但這一模式如今因為缺乏透明度而開始崩潰,尤其是在公共股權的私募投資披露和資本流動不確定的情況下。

10x Research以財庫公司BitMine為案例,指出其策略“使機構投資者能夠以平價累積ETH,然後以溢價分發給散戶買家,這一反饋循環持續推高價格。”

研究人員還提到幾個技術指標,顯示如果以太坊價格未能維持在3,000美元附近的支撐位,可能會急劇下跌,最終跌至約2,700美元。

以太坊財庫公司儘管面臨市場風險仍持樂觀態度

根據行業數據,目前有15家以太坊專注的數字資產財庫公司,合共持有470萬ETH。BitMine是最大的,擁有約330萬ETH,其次是SharpLink,持有約859,853 ETH,以及Bit Digital,擁有150,244 ETH。

儘管以太坊市場最近波動不定,包括美國現貨交易所交易基金(ETFs)需求減少,BitMine的主席Tom Lee仍然保持樂觀。他在上個月重申,以太坊的價格可能在今年達到10,000美元,並認為該資產自2021年以來已建立了堅實的基礎。

然而,市場在10月10日的崩盤後,普遍感到謹慎,該事件導致約190億美元的加密資產被清算,成為有紀錄以來最大的清算事件。自那以後,以太坊及整個數字資產市場都難以恢復動力。

這篇報告引發了對以太坊未來的深思,尤其是其在機構投資者中的地位和可持續性。隨著比特幣的強勢表現,是否以太坊能夠保持其市場份額,或是會被逐漸邊緣化,這都是值得關注的問題。投資者在考慮進一步投資前,應該仔細評估這些結構性風險和市場動態。

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