比特幣牛市結束？三大跡象揭示真相

zero comment
crypto

🎬 YouTube Premium 家庭 Plan成員一位 只需
HK$148/年！

不用提供密碼、不用VPN、無需轉區
直接升級你的香港帳號 ➜ 即享 YouTube + YouTube Music 無廣告播放


立即升級 🔗

比特幣熊市的三個理由：牛市已經結束？

比特幣的MACD指標出現看跌交叉，加上BTC上次減半後的持續時間，可能顯示2025年的牛市已經結束，或者這次會有所不同？

**市場分析**

**關鍵要點：**

* 比特幣的看跌MACD交叉和三週圖表上的吞沒蠟燭信號顯示出周期高點。
* 市場分析師指出，距離2024年減半已經過去558天，這表明比特幣牛市的頂部即將來臨。
* 其他分析師則認為BTC的價格仍有上升空間，$180,000的目標仍然在計劃中。

比特幣的價格在週四交易中下跌了3%，距離其在10月6日創下的$126,000歷史高點低了13%，一些交易者認為這一水平可能已經標誌著BTC的周期高點。

比特幣技術分析顯示“高點已到”

根據一位加密分析師的說法，比特幣的價格行為似乎確認了一個“看跌的MACD交叉”，這可能根據歷史模式顯示出[比特幣牛市的結束](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-run-over-traders-50-percent-btc-price-crash-warning “https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-run-over-traders-50-percent-btc-price-crash-warning”)。

分析師Jesse Olson在週三的一篇X帖中表示：“比特幣三週圖表上有一個待確認的看跌MACD交叉。”他補充道：“直方圖還顯示出長期的看跌背離。”

當移動平均收斂指標（MACD）藍色波浪移動到信號線（橙色波浪）下方時，這一交叉被確認，如下圖所示。

值得注意的是，MACD發出這一看跌信號的最後兩次分別是在2017年和2021年的牛市高點，標誌著比特幣的頂部。

同樣的三週圖表顯示出一個“看跌吞沒蠟燭”的出現，這與2017年和2021年牛市高峰時的情況相似。

這些以及“其他幾個警告表明高點已到，”Jesse Olson在週四的另一篇帖子中表示。

這些警告包括網絡活動的下降，顯示出鏈上需求減少。來自Nansen的數據顯示，比特幣網絡上的每日活躍地址在10月減少了30%，從632,915降至447,225。

比特幣的即將周期高點

匿名交易者和投資者Mister Crypto支持高點論的觀點，認為比特幣已達到一個“歷史性高點”，這是基於其[四年減半周期](https://cointelegraph.com/learn/articles/bitcoin-halving-how-does-the-halving-cycle-work-and-why-does-it-matter)。

回顧2012年和2016年的比特幣減半周期，確實存在類似的趨勢。價格通常在減半事件後518到580天之間達到高點。

距離[2024年比特幣減半](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving “https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving”)已經過去558天，這使得比特幣市場正處於歷史518-580天高點窗口的+40天內。

“我們正處於比特幣歷史性高點的時期，”Mister Crypto在X帖中詢問：“這次會有所不同嗎？”

另一位分析師CryptoBird表示，比特幣在這一周期內可能只有幾天的價格擴張時間，特別是如果它遵循[基於過去減半的歷史模式](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-run-over-traders-50-percent-btc-price-crash-warning)的話。

在他最近的比特幣分析中，CryptoBird表示比特幣正在“整合，等待爆發，頂部窗口已開啟”。

比特幣的上升空間真的結束了嗎？

除了那些認為比特幣四年周期不再決定牛市持續時間的人外，還有其他人相信BTC[仍然有更多上升空間](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-room-for-growth-why-analysts-say-300k-btc-still-in-play)，這是基於技術指標。

分析師Jelle表示，比特幣“形成了更高的低點，範圍保持不變”，他指的是BTC在日線圖上的價格行為。

“重新獲得$116K區域，樂趣就會重新開始。”

另一位分析師Mags則表示，比特幣正處於一個“看漲的喇叭形態”中，這在歷史上導致了向上的突破。

“巨大的突破即將來臨。”

如[Cointelegraph報導](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mayer-multiple-btc-price-can-180k-before-overbought)，比特幣的Mayer Multiple顯示，當前水平的BTC仍然接近“超賣”，這表明$180,000的目標仍然在計劃中。

這篇文章不包含投資建議或推薦。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。

—

在這篇文章中，比特幣的市場情況顯示出一種矛盾的局面。一方面，許多技術指標和分析師的觀點似乎指向牛市的結束，另一方面，仍有不少分析師堅信比特幣的潛力尚未耗盡，未來仍有上升空間。這反映了當前市場的不確定性，也提醒投資者在進行決策時需要謹慎。比特幣的未來走向將取決於多種因素，包括市場情緒、技術指標以及宏觀經濟環境的變化。

以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。

🎨 Nano Banana Pro 圖像生成器｜打幾句說話就出圖

想畫人像、產品圖、插畫？SSFuture 圖像生成器支援 Flux 同 Gemini Nano Banana Pro 改圖 / 合成， 打廣東話都得，仲可以沿用上一張圖繼續微調。

🆓 Flux 模型即玩，不用登入
🤖 登入後解鎖 Gemini 改圖
📷 支援上載參考圖再生成
⚡ 每天免費額度任你玩
✨ 即刻玩 AI 畫圖
Prompt (Enhanced, Artistic & Detailed): A young Asian female inspired by "Imada Mio's" delicate doll-like aesthetic (精緻洋娃娃臉), featuring extraordinarily large, round, and soulful eyes with subtle brown irises, framed by long fluttering lashes. Her face is petite and exquisitely shaped with a defined V-line jaw, soft rosy cheeks flushed with youthful vitality, and plush, natural lips softly parted in a gentle, innocent yet slightly flirtatious expression. Her complexion is luminous and porcelain-smooth. Her hair is long, dark chocolate brown, and styled in an artfully messy “just woke up” look (剛睡醒的凌亂感), with tousled waves and a touch of natural volume that frames her face and cascades down her shoulders, effortlessly blending wildness and charm. She wears an oversized, semi-sheer white button-down shirt in a borrowed-from-the-boyfriend style (男友風白襯衫); the shirt slips loosely off her slim shoulders, unbuttoned at the top to reveal graceful collarbones and a hint of décolleté. The hem of the shirt falls mid-thigh, creating a tasteful "bottomless" look (下衣失蹤風格), her bare legs just visible beneath the diaphanous fabric, enhancing a pure yet subtly sexy visual impact. The image is rendered with a high-key, natural daylight aesthetic reminiscent of Japanese gravure photobooks (寫真集風格): bright, airy lighting softly illuminates her features, casting gentle highlights and diffuse shadows for a dreamy, ethereal effect. Skin is rendered creamy and velvety with impeccable smoothness. The color palette echoes Fujifilm PRO 400H—soft, milky tones with delicate pastels, gentle greens, natural skin, and a nostalgic film grain that adds warmth and authenticity, evoking an elegant, fresh, and intimate atmosphere. She is posed naturally, perhaps seated on light bed linens or by a sunlit window, exuding a blend of youthful innocence, pure allure, and quiet confidence. Hyper-detailed, cinematic composition, fine-tuned for photorealism yet with a subtle artistic charm. Google Gemini / Meta AI 🎯💯 Promte ✅ A hyper-realistic night portrait of a handsome young man leaning casually against a black luxury car, laughing heartily with head tilted slightly back. He has a groomed beard, short styled dark hair, and is wearing a plain black long-sleeve crewneck sweatshirt. The lighting is low-key and cinematic, with the subject's face warmly illuminated against the darkness. The background features a dark street with beautiful, creamy golden bokeh orbs from distant streetlights and car headlights. Shot on a Sony A7R IV with an 85mm f/1.4 lens, shallow depth of field, sharp focus on the smile, high contrast, moody urban night atmosphere, 8k resolution. Size 4:5 ratio 100% use my upload reference image A close-up of a young man (as in the uploaded image) Dominates the right side of the frame, viewed from a low-angle perspective, giving him a powerful and imposing presence. He is wearing a simple white tank top (muscle shirt) and tan or light-yellow cargo shorts. He is holding a wooden baseball bat slung over his right shoulder. His expression is serious and determined. JustinE the Rottweiler: Located on the left, chained to man. JustinE is in an aggressive stance, mouth wide open in a fierce snarl or bark, showing his teeth and tongue, with saliva visible. He is wearing a thick, heavy silver chain leash and collar, with a small circular dog tag visible that says "JustinE". The dog is large and muscular, facing the viewer. Leash: A heavy-gauge silver metal chain connects JustinE's collar to man's hand. Lighting: Strong, harsh daylight typical of Southern California, creating deep shadows and high contrast, enhancing the dramatic feel. Background/Setting: A Southern San Andreas (Los Santos) street setting. The background is slightly blurred but suggests a hot, dry, urban environment with power lines/telegraph wires and a glimpse of an older vehicle (possibly a green van) in the lower-left corner. The sky is a bright, clear, light yellow-green color, indicative of a hot day. hard shadows, and a distinct color palette typical of GTA loading screens and cover. Highly detailed and rendered. Vibrant, cinematic.

chatgpt

Related Articles

IMF警告穩定幣或危害新興市場
Read More
XRP面臨賣壓，無法穩定突破$2.12
Read More
康乃狄克州法官暫停對Kalshi的執法行動
Read More

🖼️ AI 圖庫｜抄咒語學玩法

想睇吓人哋點玩 AI 畫圖？圖庫集合大量 Flux / Gemini 作品， 可以一 click 複製咒語，直入生成器再改做自己版本。

✅ 真實作品示範
📋 一鍵複製咒語
✨ 不定期加入新圖
✏️ 「修改」按鈕直連生成器
👀 入去睇圖 + 抄咒語
Prompt: Use my image in Ultra-realistic, hyper-detailed, 8K cinematic portrait of a young stylish man, using the uploaded image for exact face and hairstyle. Outfit: An oversized red knit sweater with white hearts, exactly as described in the prompt. Pose: A hyper-realistic close-up portrait with a messy, cropped framing showing only the boy holding the book. His left hand rests on the wooden table and covers part of his cheek, with a subtle smile on his lips. His other hand holds the book titled "Something I Never Told You" with the word "YOU" written in pink, exactly as described in the prompt. Background: Not specified. Gallery
一隻在香港茶餐廳喝奶茶的貓 Gallery
Prompt (Enhanced, Artistic & Detailed): A young Asian female inspired by "Imada Mio's" delicate doll-like aesthetic (精緻洋娃娃臉), featuring extraordinarily large, round, and soulful eyes with subtle brown irises, framed by long fluttering lashes. Her face is petite and exquisitely shaped with a defined V-line jaw, soft rosy cheeks flushed with youthful vitality, and plush, natural lips softly parted in a gentle, innocent yet slightly flirtatious expression. Her complexion is luminous and porcelain-smooth. Her hair is long, dark chocolate brown, and styled in an artfully messy “just woke up” look (剛睡醒的凌亂感), with tousled waves and a touch of natural volume that frames her face and cascades down her shoulders, effortlessly blending wildness and charm. She wears an oversized, semi-sheer white button-down shirt in a borrowed-from-the-boyfriend style (男友風白襯衫); the shirt slips loosely off her slim shoulders, unbuttoned at the top to reveal graceful collarbones and a hint of décolleté. The hem of the shirt falls mid-thigh, creating a tasteful "bottomless" look (下衣失蹤風格), her bare legs just visible beneath the diaphanous fabric, enhancing a pure yet subtly sexy visual impact. The image is rendered with a high-key, natural daylight aesthetic reminiscent of Japanese gravure photobooks (寫真集風格): bright, airy lighting softly illuminates her features, casting gentle highlights and diffuse shadows for a dreamy, ethereal effect. Skin is rendered creamy and velvety with impeccable smoothness. The color palette echoes Fujifilm PRO 400H—soft, milky tones with delicate pastels, gentle greens, natural skin, and a nostalgic film grain that adds warmth and authenticity, evoking an elegant, fresh, and intimate atmosphere. She is posed naturally, perhaps seated on light bed linens or by a sunlit window, exuding a blend of youthful innocence, pure allure, and quiet confidence. Hyper-detailed, cinematic composition, fine-tuned for photorealism yet with a subtle artistic charm. Gallery