摩根士丹利：蔚來股價飆升或改變市場看法
摩根士丹利指出，蔚來（NIO）過去兩個月股價大漲超過90%，已達到該行設定的目標價6.5美元（約港幣50.7元），這波漲勢可能正引發市場情緒的轉變。
分析師提出四大重點，探討這波反彈是否會改寫蔚來的市場敘事。
一、ES8訂單強勁，預約量激增
摩根士丹利特別指出，ES8型號的預訂情況十分火熱，根據調查顯示，上週末訂金數量或已突破3萬張，且仍持續攀升。雖然這些預約能否轉化為實際訂單尚未明朗，但市場普遍看好ES8能像上月的L90一樣迅速走紅，預計蔚來從10月起每月銷量可達4萬至5萬輛。
二、資金流入穩健
分析師提及，最近兩天蔚來股票的交易額超過25億美元，等同於過去兩週的累計成交額，顯示資金流動活躍且健康。
三、投資者情緒轉佳
儘管外界仍在討論蔚來復甦的可持續性，摩根士丹利觀察到，關於蔚來需求基礎及執行風險的質疑明顯減少，市場關注焦點轉向明年初即將推出的L60和L80兩款車型的升級改款。
四、股價動能自我強化
該行指出，蔚來股價上漲呈現自我強化效應。投資者普遍認為，股價表現與資本市場對蔚來營運及戰略發展的融資意願密切相關，這又反映了公司營運價值和應對汽車產業快速變革的能力。
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評論與啟示
蔚來這波股價飆升不僅是數據上的突破，更象徵著市場對其業務模式和成長前景的信心逐漸回暖。ES8預訂量的急速增加，顯示消費者需求正在真實發酵，這對於剛剛歷經波動的新能源汽車板塊來說，是一個積極的信號。
然而，從投資角度看，股價的漲勢是否能持續，仍須關注蔚來的實際交付能力和市場競爭態勢。汽車行業正面臨電動化、智能化的深刻轉型，蔚來如何在技術、成本和市場接受度間取得平衡，將直接影響其未來表現。
此外，資本市場的融資意願固然重要，但更根本的是企業自身的經營實力和創新能力。投資者不應只被短期股價動能所吸引，而忽視了企業長期的競爭力和風險管理。
最後，市場對即將到來的L60和L80車型抱有期待，這也提醒我們，產品迭代速度和質量仍是新能源車企能否突圍的關鍵。蔚來能否在這些方面繼續領先，將決定其未來能否真正改寫市場敘事，從而鞏固甚至擴大其市場地位。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。
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