比特幣138億美元期權到期,牛市面臨考驗
比特幣的期權到期和科技行業的壓力將決定牛市是否真的結束,還是僅僅暫時停頓。
市場分析
比特幣的138億美元期權將於8月29日到期,許多交易者認為這一時刻可能決定最近9.7%的回調是否標誌著比特幣牛市的結束,還是只是暫時的停頓。周四,比特幣價格跌至112,100美元,創下六周以來的最低點,進一步加劇了在月度期權到期前的看跌情緒。
牛市策略在114,000美元以下面臨挑戰
目前,買權(call)期權的未平倉合約為74.4億美元,比賣權(put)期權的63.7億美元高出17%。然而,實際結果取決於8月29日UTC時間早上8點的比特幣價格。Deribit在市場中佔據85%的份額,CME和OKX分別佔7%和3%。
牛市投資者可能過於自信,一些押注甚至設在125,000美元或更高。隨著比特幣的下跌,這種樂觀情緒迅速消退,市場動能轉向賣權。無論近期比特幣價格回調的原因如何,選擇牛市策略的交易者可能會感到失望。
只有12%的買權是在115,000美元或以下的價格上放置的,這使得大多數合約在當前價格水平下變得無效。相比之下,21%的賣權則設定在115,000美元或更高,並在112,000美元附近形成了顯著的集聚。因此,預期在月度到期前,空頭將繼續對比特幣價格施加負面壓力是合情合理的。
或許現在宣告牛市策略完全失敗還為時尚早。交易者正在等待美國聯邦儲備委員會主席鮑威爾的評論,任何有關加大降息機會的暗示都可能支持資產價格。周四,美國失業救濟申請數據高於預期,進一步加劇了市場的不確定性。
美國聯邦儲備與科技股可能決定比特幣的未來
根據當前價格趨勢,以下是Deribit的五種可能情境。這些結果根據未平倉合約的不平衡來估算理論利潤,但不包括複雜的策略,例如出售賣權以獲得上行價格的敞口。
* **在105,000至110,000美元之間:** 買權2.1億美元,賣權26.6億美元,淨結果偏向賣權,差額為24.5億美元。
* **在110,100至114,000美元之間:** 買權4.2億美元,賣權19.4億美元,偏向賣權,差額為15億美元。
* **在114,100至116,000美元之間:** 買權7.95億美元,賣權11.5億美元,偏向賣權,差額為3.6億美元。
* **在116,100至118,000美元之間:** 買權13億美元,賣權8.3億美元,偏向買權,差額為4.6億美元。
* **在118,100至120,000美元之間:** 買權17億美元,賣權5.6億美元,偏向買權,差額為11億美元。
對於牛市策略來說,比特幣需要在8月29日之前交易在116,000美元以上。然而,最關鍵的戰鬥發生在114,000美元,空頭在此區域最有動力推低價格。
最終,比特幣在138億美元的月度期權到期中的命運將由更廣泛的宏觀經濟趨勢決定,包括投資者對人工智能行業的擔憂。在摩根士丹利警告科技公司因支出激增而可能限制股票回購能力後,這種擔憂進一步加劇,讓股市更加謹慎。
這篇文章僅供一般信息參考,並不構成法律或投資建議。文中表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者本人,並不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和意見。
—
在這篇文章中,我們看到了比特幣市場面臨的多重挑戰,尤其是在即將到期的期權合約和宏觀經濟不確定性之間的交互影響。這提醒我們,市場情緒和投資者心理在加密貨幣交易中扮演著至關重要的角色。隨著科技股的波動和美聯儲政策的變化,投資者需要保持警惕,靈活調整策略,以應對潛在的市場風險。在這樣的環境中,長期的投資視角和風險管理策略將變得尤為重要。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。
![{
"intro": "Create an ultra realistic 8K UHD DSLR photo based on the attached image as a reference of facial features, maintaining 100% likeness.",
"subject": {
"identity": "A stylish beautiful woman portrayed as Cleopatra performing a sacred night-time royal dance, embodying divine seduction, power, and celestial authority.",
"angle": "Full-body high-fashion editorial portrait captured at a cinematic 3/4 angle, ultra-crisp clarity with no blur.",
"pose": {
"body_position": "She is captured mid-dance inside a temple courtyard at night, her body angled gracefully, hips grounded, torso lifted, creating a powerful and sensual silhouette.",
"movement": "Her arms are raised in slow ceremonial motion while one leg steps forward, fully revealing her feet and lower legs as part of the ritual stance.",
"expression": "A calm, hypnotic, commanding gaze directed toward the camera—quiet dominance wrapped in sensual mystery."
}
},
"appearance": {
"outfit": "An ultra-bongga Cleopatra couture gown with an all-crystal bodice that fits like jeweled armor. Thousands of hand-set crystals, diamonds, and glass stones in gold, champagne, clear, and iridescent tones form sacred Egyptian motifs—cobras, sun disks, lotus symbols—entirely through crystal placement. The neckline is daring yet elegant, supported by invisible illusion mesh. From the waist, the skirt opens into flowing sheer silk and organza panels in ivory and soft gold, designed with a high front opening that intentionally exposes her legs and feet during movement. Crystal chains and beaded fringe sway rhythmically with every step, enhancing sensual motion.",
"accessories": "A dramatic Egyptian ceremonial headpiece with gold and crystal detailing, an oversized layered gold collar necklace, sculpted crystal arm cuffs, finger armor rings, a crystal-and-gold waist belt, and delicate gold anklets accentuating her bare feet.",
"hair": "Her hair is sleek, glossy, and perfectly controlled, styled to balance the weight of the crystal headpiece while allowing elegant movement.",
"makeup": "Ultra-glam, colorful Egyptian night makeup—bold elongated black kohl eyeliner, intense eyeshadow layered in turquoise, emerald, sapphire blue, violet, and metallic gold. Beneath the eyes, intricate ceremonial ink drawings in fine black and gold lines inspired by ancient Egyptian markings. Skin is luminous with molten-gold highlights, brows strong and defined, lips finished in a sensual nude-bronze satin."
},
"props": {
"ritual_elements": [
"Burning incense bowls releasing thick aromatic smoke",
"Golden sistrum placed near the dance space",
"Tall ceremonial torches lining the temple floor"
]
},
"background": {
"macro_environment": "A grand ancient Egyptian temple courtyard at night, reserved for sacred royal rituals.",
"midground_details": "Towering sandstone columns, massive statues of Isis and Hathor, carved temple walls, flowing linen drapes, and ceremonial platforms illuminated by firelight.",
"micro_elements": "Torch flames reflecting off crystal surfaces, fine dust particles glowing in the night air, incense smoke wrapping around her legs and feet, detailed stone floor textures beneath her bare feet, crystal fringe in motion, and sharply defined shadows—everything rendered in extreme detail with zero blur."
},
"lighting": {
"type": "Cinematic night lighting using torches, oil lamps, and subtle moonlight.",
"effect": "Firelight ignites the crystal bodice with prismatic sparkle while moonlight softly outlines her legs and feet, creating a dramatic, sensual, and divine atmosphere."
},
"camera": {
"camera_type": "DSLR",
"resolution": "8K UHD",
"lens": "50mm prime lens",
"aperture": "f/8 for full-body and environment sharpness",
"iso": 100,
"shutter_speed": "1/200s to freeze elegant motion clearly",
"focus": "Extreme sharp focus on crystal bodice, facial features, legs, feet, and temple details, no bokeh, no blur"
},
"style": "Ultra high-fashion editorial, night temple ritual, all-crystal couture, sexy yet sacred, ancient Egyptian royalty reimagined, cinematic realism, extremely detailed, sharp, iconic"
}](https://ssfuture.shop/wp-content/uploads/ai_gen_1766006158-167x300.png)
