預測市場：政府關閉將創紀錄！

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預測市場顯示政府停擺將創下紀錄：亞洲晨報
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Kalshi 和 Polymarket 預測停擺將持續超過 40 天。
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作者：Sam Reynolds | 編輯：Aoyon Ashraf

2025年10月22日，凌晨1:42

![美國國會大廈 (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F141f85b0443d5309ae7da389199a6fec8d880f37-1920×1080.jpg%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75 “美國國會大廈 (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)”)

根據預測市場的數據，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 正在定價一個可能持續超過 40 天的政府停擺。這一情況反映出市場對於未來政治局勢的擔憂，尤其是在美國國會的預算談判陷入僵局的背景下。

這種長期的政府停擺將對經濟造成重大影響，尤其是在公共服務和政府資助項目方面。預測市場的數據顯示，投資者對於政府未能達成共識的可能性持悲觀態度，這可能會導致市場的不穩定。

在這樣的情況下，民眾和企業都可能面臨不確定性，尤其是依賴政府資助的行業和社會服務。這一情況不僅影響到經濟，還可能對社會穩定造成影響。

評論：這一預測不僅僅是數據的反映，更是對美國政治體系的深刻反思。政府的運作應該以民眾的需求為中心，而不是被政治鬥爭所左右。隨著社會對政府功能的期待不斷提高，政治領導者必須更加負責任地處理預算和政策問題，以避免未來類似的危機重演。這不僅是經濟的問題，更是對民主制度的考驗。

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