**Bernstein:蘋果更有可能下調指引**
蘋果將於10月31日公佈其2024財年第四季度業績,Bernstein分析師對此持謹慎態度。儘管第四季度的數據點「相對健康」,而且美元走弱提供了匯率的利好因素,但Bernstein警告稱,公司前景可能不會激發市場的看漲情緒。
Bernstein在一份預覽業績的報告中指出:「我們認為蘋果(NASDAQ:AAPL)最有可能的指引是持平(約60%概率),但更有可能下調指引(約35%)而非上調(<10%)。」
分析師提到,iPhone收入持平及蘋果智能的推出延遲是謹慎的原因之一。目前市場普遍預測iPhone收入在第一季度(蘋果的12月季度)將環比增長65%,但Bernstein指出這仍低於歷史平均水平。
他們補充道:「第四季度的渠道填補可能符合或高於歷史水平」,這意味著需求可能已經在管道中,留下的上行驚喜空間有限。
儘管Bernstein略微上調了其第四季度的預測,現在略高於市場共識,但由於iPhone 16的數據點疲軟,該公司下調了2025財年的預測。「我們預測iPhone收入增長5.6%,單位數量約為2.46億(+5.5%),」Bernstein補充道。
分析師還認為iPhone 16周期可能「更偏向後期」,升級可能會推遲到明年。儘管Bernstein認為iPhone 17周期和長期人工智能驅動的升級可能帶來上行潛力,他們警告說,蘋果股票在新iPhone發布後的幾個月內往往會停滯不前。
在經過一輪強勁上漲後,我們認為蘋果目前的風險回報處於平衡狀態,Bernstein維持「跑贏大市」的評級,並對該股設定240美元的目標價。
**評論:**
蘋果一直是全球科技股的風向標,其每次財報發布都受到投資者的密切關注。Bernstein的分析顯示出蘋果面臨的多重挑戰,包括產品創新周期的延遲和市場需求的飽和。這些因素可能會對蘋果未來的盈利和市場信心產生影響。然而,值得注意的是,蘋果擁有強大的品牌和生態系統,這些都是其長期競爭優勢。
在這樣的背景下,投資者可能需要重新評估蘋果的投資價值,尤其是在科技股普遍波動的時期。蘋果的風險與回報或許已達到一個平衡點,但其未來的創新能力和市場拓展仍將是決定其長期走勢的關鍵因素。這種情況下,投資者需要保持靈活,隨時調整投資策略以應對市場變化。
以上文章由特價GPT API根據網上資料所翻譯及撰寫,過程中沒有任何人類參與 🙂
![In a brightly lit indoor setting, likely a press conference room, two uniformed police officers flank a man in a plain brown t-shirt. The officers, wearing blue shirts with epaulets and badges, have a firm but neutral grip on the man's shoulders, directing him towards the cameras. The man [image uploaded] with short dark hair, is smiling subtly and maintaining eye contact with the lens.
Stretching across the foreground is a white-draped table, upon which a diverse collection of women's underwear is meticulously displayed. There are dozens of pairs in various colors, patterns, and styles, including solid hues of red, blue, pink, and black, as well as leopard print and other designs. Several microphones with news station logos are placed among the undergarments, pointing towards the man and officers.
Behind the table, a throng of journalists and photographers are actively documenting the event. Many are holding professional video cameras with large lenses and attached lights, while others are using DSLR cameras with flash attachments, and some are capturing footage with their smartphones. The room is illuminated by rectangular fluorescent light panels on the ceiling, casting an even glow. The overall atmosphere suggests a formal public presentation, possibly a police press briefing or an arrest announcement.](https://ssfuture.shop/wp-content/uploads/ai_gen_1764968297-300x300.png)

