美零售業季績揭示關稅影響與市場反彈

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美國零售商業績報告將揭示關稅變動對經濟的影響

紐約消息——未來一週，美國多間零售商將陸續公布季度業績，市場期待從中了解關稅政策變化對經濟的影響，並測試股市近期強勁反彈的持續力。包括Target、Home Depot及Lowe’s在內的零售巨頭陸續發表業績，正值投資者對美國總統特朗普關稅政策引發經濟衰退的擔憂逐漸減退，特別是在中美兩大經濟體達成貿易休戰協議之後。

不過，全球最大零售商沃爾瑪（Walmart）週四發出警告，表示由於高額關稅，將不得不開始調高商品價格，令其他零售商的應對策略成為焦點，投資者密切觀察這些企業如何在仍不穩定的貿易環境中調整。

Miller Tabak首席市場策略師Matthew Maley表示：「零售商的表現將極其關鍵，尤其是在沃爾瑪發出這樣的警告之後。」他指出，沃爾瑪的警告是在中美休戰消息公布後發出的，儘管雙方同意降低部分超過100%關稅，但沃爾瑪仍警示未來關稅將帶來壓力，這自然引發市場疑慮。

關稅可能推高商品價格，從而抑制消費支出或推高通脹，一直是投資者心中的隱憂。自4月2日特朗普宣布對進口商品徵收大規模關稅以來，市場波動明顯加劇。

這批零售商的季報同時也將提供消費支出的最新狀況，消費支出佔美國經濟活動超過三分之二。最新數據顯示，4月份美國零售銷售增速大幅放緩，先前為避關稅而提前購買的刺激效應逐漸消退，而消費者信心及其他調查數據亦顯示疲弱。

Cresset Capital創始合夥人兼首席投資官Jack Ablin坦言：「消費者情緒相當低迷，但關鍵是觀察家庭是否真正開始收緊支出。」

未來一週還包括服裝製造商Ralph Lauren及折扣零售商TJX等公司的業績報告，這些數據將為不同消費市場提供重要洞見。IG北美區行政總裁兼Tastytrade總裁JJ Kinahan指出，市場關注的焦點之一是消費者是否會因價格上升而「降級」購買較便宜商品。

自4月2日特朗普宣布關稅以來，股市經歷極端波動後已大幅反彈。標普500指數自4月低點反彈超過18%，並已抹去年初以來的損失。Kinahan表示：「股市持續反彈，展現韌性。」

—

評論與分析

這波零售業績報告的發布時機至關重要，因為它不僅反映了關稅政策對企業成本和定價策略的直接影響，更是衡量美國消費者信心和消費行為的晴雨表。沃爾瑪的價格上調警告，實際上點出了關稅政策的兩難：一方面政府希望利用關稅施壓貿易對手，另一方面高關稅卻可能推高通脹，削弱消費者購買力，進而拖累經濟增長。

投資者必須留意，零售商在這種不確定環境下的應對策略將透露他們對未來經濟走勢的看法。若更多零售商跟隨沃爾瑪調價，可能預示通脹壓力加劇，消費者購買力受損，長遠看將對股市構成挑戰。

此外，消費者是否「降級消費」也值得關注。這不單是價格敏感度的反映，更可能揭示經濟信心的深層變化。若消費者轉向低價商品，可能意味著經濟增長動能轉弱，企業需調整產品策略以應對市場需求變化。

總括而言，這次零售業績不僅是企業財報，更是美國經濟健康狀況和政策效應的縮影。投資者和政策制定者應從中汲取教訓，掌握消費市場的真實動態，以便在複雜多變的全球經濟環境中做出更明智的決策。

以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。

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