穩定幣需求增長,或將壓低利率:美聯儲的米蘭
美國聯邦儲備委員會理事史蒂芬·米蘭(Stephen Miran)指出,與美元掛鉤的加密穩定幣需求增長,可能會在未來五年內促使利率下降。
米蘭在紐約的BCVC峰會上表示,這些與美元掛鉤的加密代幣可能會對中性利率(即不刺激或抑制經濟的利率)施加“下行壓力”。他提到,如果中性利率下降,中央銀行也會相應降低利率。
根據CoinGecko的數據,目前所有穩定幣的總市值約為310.7億美元,米蘭建議美聯儲的研究顯示,這一市場在未來五年內可能增長至高達3萬億美元的價值。
米蘭表示:“我的論點是,穩定幣已經在增加美國國債和其他美元計價流動資產的需求,這一需求將持續增長。”他還指出,穩定幣可能成為中央銀行面對的“多萬億美元的大象”。
包括國際貨幣基金組織在內的多個機構已警告,穩定幣對傳統金融資產和服務構成威脅,因為它們可能會與傳統銀行爭奪客戶。美國銀行團體也呼籲國會加強對穩定幣的監管,認為這些穩定幣可能吸引潛在的銀行客戶。
規範鋪平道路
在演講中,米蘭讚揚了GENIUS法案,該法案為穩定幣設定了明確的指導方針和消費者保護。他指出,監管框架將在促進穩定幣的更廣泛採用中發揮關鍵作用。
他表示:“雖然我對新規範持懷疑態度,但我對GENIUS法案感到非常鼓舞。這一穩定幣的監管機制為持有傳統美元資產提供了合法性和問責性。”他補充道:“對於貨幣政策而言,GENIUS法案最重要的方面是要求美國境內的發行商保持至少一比一的儲備,並以安全且流動的美元計價資產作為支持。”
這一討論揭示了穩定幣在金融體系中的潛在影響力,尤其是在當前經濟環境中,利率和通脹的波動使得穩定幣的需求日益增加。米蘭的觀點不僅反映了對穩定幣未來增長的樂觀預期,也突顯了對其監管的迫切需求。隨著穩定幣市場的擴大,如何平衡創新與風險將成為政策制定者面臨的重要挑戰。
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