特朗普重返白宮對生物製藥的影響分析




特朗普2.0對生物製藥行業的影響將是適度正面,但需關注FDA

根據BMO Capital Markets的分析師,唐納德·特朗普重返白宮預計將對生物製藥行業產生「適度正面」的影響。然而,與此相關的一個擔憂是,羅伯特·F·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.)可能被任命為重要的醫療保健職位,因為他之前曾發表反疫苗的言論。

BMO的分析師伊凡·大衛·塞格曼(Evan David Seigerman)在一份報告中表示:「我們認為這是最大的變數,因為這一變化對特朗普政府來說相對較新。但我們需要觀察誰實際上運行關鍵的健康機構。」

根據BMO的說法,根據美聯社周三的報導,特朗普的勝利可能會對生物製藥行業產生淨正面影響。分析師認為,通脹減少法案(IRA)不會擴展,聯邦貿易委員會(FTC)的干預將減少。此外,企業稅預計將保持在低位或僅小幅上升,並且有可能進行一些藥房福利管理者(PBM)的改革,雖然這並非確定。

分析師進一步指出:「如果特朗普選擇更加民粹主義的議程,我們可能會看到藥品價格的持續壓力,或者至少保持目前IRA談判的現狀。」

報告還強調,對於大型生物製藥公司和中小型企業來說,減少FTC監管可能帶來的潛在好處。在特朗普的領導下,預計政治監督會減少,市場可能會見證併購活動的增加。

BMO團隊表示,特朗普更可能專注於移民和關稅等問題,而不是推動對美國內部併購交易的監管。

展望未來,該公司討論了2017年稅收減免和就業法案的延續或擴展的影響,該法案預計將在2025年到期。具體而言,他們指出,雖然企業或個人的稅率大幅上升的可能性不大,但延長減稅可能需要在其他領域進行支出削減。特朗普對關稅的立場也可能導致各行各業的成本上升。

最後,分析師還指出了其他考量因素,例如生物安全法案(BioSecure Act),該法案可能因特朗普之前對中國的評論而取得進展,以及對於藥品專利的強制授權權利不太可能採取行動。

評論

特朗普再次當選對生物製藥行業的影響值得關注,尤其是在當前全球面臨疫苗接種和公共健康議題的背景下。雖然BMO的分析指出了潛在的正面影響,但特朗普政府的政策走向仍然充滿不確定性,特別是如果肯尼迪被任命,可能會對疫苗政策產生重大影響。

此外,雖然減少FTC的監管可能讓市場充滿活力,但這是否會真正促進創新和市場競爭,還有待觀察。企業在追求利潤的同時,也需考慮社會責任,特別是在涉及公共健康的領域。這可能會引發一場關於如何在促進商業利益與保障公眾健康之間取得平衡的討論。

以上文章由特價GPT API根據網上資料所翻譯及撰寫,過程中沒有任何人類參與 🙂

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