特朗普社交媒體進軍預測市場！

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特朗普的Truth Social進軍預測市場，與Crypto.com合作

特朗普媒體與科技集團（TMTG），由美國總統唐納德·特朗普共同創立的科技和媒體公司，計劃在其社交媒體平台Truth Social上啟用預測市場。根據周二的官方公告，Truth Social與美國主要加密貨幣交易所Crypto.com合作，推出名為Truth Predict的社交媒體預測市場平台。

TMTG首席執行官德文·努內斯表示：「長期以來，全球精英對這些市場的控制過於嚴密——透過Truth Predict，我們正在實現信息的民主化，並賦予普通美國人利用群眾智慧的能力，將言論自由轉化為可行的預見。」

Truth Social進軍預測市場的舉動，正值全球預測市場產業蓬勃發展之際，兩大行業領頭羊Kalshi和Polymarket正在引領這一趨勢。

自2022年推出以來，Truth Social截至2025年1月已累積約630萬用戶，遠遠落後於競爭對手X（前Twitter），後者在2025年初擁有6.5億用戶。

預計不久後在美國全面推出

根據TMTG的聲明，Truth Social的預測市場整合將在不久的將來開始在社交媒體平台上進行Beta測試。

在Beta推出之後，Truth Social預計將在美國全面推出Truth Predict。

儘管即將推出的Truth Predict明確以美國市場為目標，但像Kalshi和Polymarket這樣的既有市場參與者在美國提供預測市場時面臨挑戰。

本週一，Kalshi對紐約州博彩委員會提起訴訟，指控該監管機構超越其管轄權，因為該機構發出停止令，指控Kalshi在該州非法提供體育博彩。

Polymarket目前正在恢復在美國的運營，此前該平台因與商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）達成和解而於2022年退出市場，因為它被指控經營未註冊的衍生品交易平台。

CFTC和美國司法部隨後已停止對Polymarket的調查，這突顯了特朗普政府對整體加密貨幣的態度有所緩和。

特朗普的長子和特朗普組織的執行副總裁唐納德·特朗普小子於八月加入了Polymarket的顧問委員會。

這一舉措不僅顯示了特朗普及其團隊對於加密貨幣市場的支持，也反映出他們希望透過創新來吸引更多用戶，尤其是在當前社交媒體競爭激烈的環境中。Truth Predict的推出，或許能為用戶提供一個全新的參與平台，讓他們在預測市場中發揮更大的作用，這不僅是對信息民主化的追求，也是對現有社交媒體模式的一次挑戰。

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