$4B Bitcoin ETF 出流於十月至十一月反映基差交易的解構，而非投資者的拋售：分析師
近期從美國上市的現貨比特幣 ETF 出現了數十億美元的資金流出，這一現象主要是由於特定的套利交易結束，而非廣泛的機構恐慌。
根據分析，這次的資金流出與市場的整體情緒並不相符。事實上，這些流出主要是由於「基差交易」的解構，這是一種套利行為，而非整體市場的拋售。根據 Amberdata 的數據，ETF 的總持有量仍然穩健，達到 143 萬 BTC。
市場情況
在最近幾周，隨著比特幣價格從 125,000 美元跌至低於 80,000 美元，市場上出現了對機構拋售的討論。根據 Amberdata 的報告，這次的流出主要集中在少數發行商之間，並且與機械性的基差交易解構有關，而不是廣泛的投資者恐懼。
Amberdata 的研究主管 Michael Marshall 表示：「自十月中旬以來，比特幣 ETF 的流出接近 40 億美元。價格從 125,000 美元下跌至低於 80,000 美元，這一 35% 的下跌抹去了六個月的收益。然而，這次的賣出行為主要集中在幾個發行商之間，並且與基差交易的解構有關，而非整體投資者的恐慌。」
什麼是投資者的拋售？
在金融市場中，投資者的拋售通常是指在長期下跌後，賣方因恐懼而大量拋售的情況。這通常伴隨著高交易量和極端的恐懼指標。然而，在過去兩個月的情況下，並未出現這種現象。
Marshall 指出，儘管 BlackRock 在最近的每周流出中佔據了 97%-99% 的比例，但其管理的資產僅占 48%-51%。而 Fidelity 的 ETF 則出現了資金流入，其他小型 ETF 的持平表現也顯示出市場的穩定。
在十月一日至十一月二十六日的 53 天內，Grayscale 的流出達到 9.23 億美元，佔總流出的 53.2%。與此同時，BlackRock 和 Fidelity 則出現了資金流入，這進一步強調了市場的狀況：並沒有廣泛的拋售，而是針對性的解構。
基差交易的驅動因素
造成這一現象的原因是現貨與期貨之間的基差縮小。這種套利交易通常涉及基金購買 ETF 股票並賣出期貨，以捕捉無方向的收益。根據 Marshall 的數據，30 天的年化基差從 6.63% 縮小至 4.46%，最近 93% 的交易日都低於 5% 的盈虧平衡點。
這迫使套利交易者進行解構，賣出現貨並回購期貨。根據 Marshall 的數據，比特幣的永久期貨未平倉合約在 ETF 出流的同時下降了 37.7%。
未來展望
隨著套利交易者的退出，剩餘的 ETF 持有量代表著長期看好的機構資本。這意味著市場已經清理，為未來的增長做好了準備。
Marshall 認為：「隨著套利的過剩消失，剩餘的資金流入越來越反映真正的資產配置，而非收益收割。未來出現的市場將更加清晰，並且結構上比十月之前的市場更加乾淨。」
這一分析突顯了市場的複雜性，並且顯示出在面對價格波動時，機構投資者的行為並不總是如外界所想的那樣恐慌。這也提醒我們，市場的動態和流動性可能會受到多種因素的影響，而非單一的價格變化。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。
🎨 Nano Banana Pro 圖像生成器｜打幾句說話就出圖
想畫人像、產品圖、插畫？SSFuture 圖像生成器支援 Flux 同 Gemini Nano Banana Pro 改圖 / 合成， 打廣東話都得，仲可以沿用上一張圖繼續微調。
![{
"intro": "Create an ultra realistic 8K UHD DSLR photo based on the attached image as a reference of facial features, maintaining 100% likeness.",
"subject": {
"identity": "A stylish beautiful woman portrayed as Cleopatra performing a sacred night-time royal dance, embodying divine seduction, power, and celestial authority.",
"angle": "Full-body high-fashion editorial portrait captured at a cinematic 3/4 angle, ultra-crisp clarity with no blur.",
"pose": {
"body_position": "She is captured mid-dance inside a temple courtyard at night, her body angled gracefully, hips grounded, torso lifted, creating a powerful and sensual silhouette.",
"movement": "Her arms are raised in slow ceremonial motion while one leg steps forward, fully revealing her feet and lower legs as part of the ritual stance.",
"expression": "A calm, hypnotic, commanding gaze directed toward the camera—quiet dominance wrapped in sensual mystery."
}
},
"appearance": {
"outfit": "An ultra-bongga Cleopatra couture gown with an all-crystal bodice that fits like jeweled armor. Thousands of hand-set crystals, diamonds, and glass stones in gold, champagne, clear, and iridescent tones form sacred Egyptian motifs—cobras, sun disks, lotus symbols—entirely through crystal placement. The neckline is daring yet elegant, supported by invisible illusion mesh. From the waist, the skirt opens into flowing sheer silk and organza panels in ivory and soft gold, designed with a high front opening that intentionally exposes her legs and feet during movement. Crystal chains and beaded fringe sway rhythmically with every step, enhancing sensual motion.",
"accessories": "A dramatic Egyptian ceremonial headpiece with gold and crystal detailing, an oversized layered gold collar necklace, sculpted crystal arm cuffs, finger armor rings, a crystal-and-gold waist belt, and delicate gold anklets accentuating her bare feet.",
"hair": "Her hair is sleek, glossy, and perfectly controlled, styled to balance the weight of the crystal headpiece while allowing elegant movement.",
"makeup": "Ultra-glam, colorful Egyptian night makeup—bold elongated black kohl eyeliner, intense eyeshadow layered in turquoise, emerald, sapphire blue, violet, and metallic gold. Beneath the eyes, intricate ceremonial ink drawings in fine black and gold lines inspired by ancient Egyptian markings. Skin is luminous with molten-gold highlights, brows strong and defined, lips finished in a sensual nude-bronze satin."
},
"props": {
"ritual_elements": [
"Burning incense bowls releasing thick aromatic smoke",
"Golden sistrum placed near the dance space",
"Tall ceremonial torches lining the temple floor"
]
},
"background": {
"macro_environment": "A grand ancient Egyptian temple courtyard at night, reserved for sacred royal rituals.",
"midground_details": "Towering sandstone columns, massive statues of Isis and Hathor, carved temple walls, flowing linen drapes, and ceremonial platforms illuminated by firelight.",
"micro_elements": "Torch flames reflecting off crystal surfaces, fine dust particles glowing in the night air, incense smoke wrapping around her legs and feet, detailed stone floor textures beneath her bare feet, crystal fringe in motion, and sharply defined shadows—everything rendered in extreme detail with zero blur."
},
"lighting": {
"type": "Cinematic night lighting using torches, oil lamps, and subtle moonlight.",
"effect": "Firelight ignites the crystal bodice with prismatic sparkle while moonlight softly outlines her legs and feet, creating a dramatic, sensual, and divine atmosphere."
},
"camera": {
"camera_type": "DSLR",
"resolution": "8K UHD",
"lens": "50mm prime lens",
"aperture": "f/8 for full-body and environment sharpness",
"iso": 100,
"shutter_speed": "1/200s to freeze elegant motion clearly",
"focus": "Extreme sharp focus on crystal bodice, facial features, legs, feet, and temple details, no bokeh, no blur"
},
"style": "Ultra high-fashion editorial, night temple ritual, all-crystal couture, sexy yet sacred, ancient Egyptian royalty reimagined, cinematic realism, extremely detailed, sharp, iconic"
}](https://ssfuture.shop/wp-content/uploads/ai_gen_1766006158-167x300.png)
