比特幣跌穿9.8萬美元!中國AI DeepSeek掀起拋售潮

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比特幣價格跌破98,000美元,市場因DeepSeek AI推出而拋售

比特幣價格下跌至97,754美元,隨著市場消化中國基於ChatGPT的AI競爭者DeepSeek的影響,導致加密貨幣和股票市場出現拋售。

市場分析

比特幣在1月27日經歷了驚人的7%修正,首次跌破98,000美元,這是超過10天以來的最低點。無論是什麼因素驅動這一變化,比特幣的價格都在努力重回100,000美元的支撐水平,這使得交易者質疑牛市的動能是否已經消退。

儘管比特幣價格下跌了7,320美元至97,754美元,但比特幣衍生品指標保持穩定,這表明大型投資者和套利交易所已經為這一下跌做好了準備。然而,中國市場的穩定幣指標顯示該地區的加密貨幣需求仍然疲軟。

比特幣期貨和選擇權市場顯示出韌性

比特幣期貨的年化溢價,衡量每月合約相對於現貨市場的交易情況,提供了杠桿需求的關鍵見解。溢價水平在5%到10%之間被視為中性,而超過這一範圍的數值則反映出樂觀情緒。

儘管比特幣暫時跌至10天以來的最低點,但BTC期貨的溢價始終保持在10%的中性閾值之上,這表明沒有出現恐慌性拋售或對看跌杠桿頭寸(做空)的顯著需求。

同樣,比特幣選擇權的偏斜度,即看漲(買入)和看跌(賣出)選擇權之間的價格差異,對價格下跌的影響也不大。在中性市場中,25%德爾塔偏斜度通常在-6%到+6%之間,低於該範圍的數值則表明牛市情緒。

BTC選擇權的偏斜度短暫從-7%變為-2%,脫離了牛市區間。然而,專業交易者迅速調整了他們的頭寸,將該指標恢復到-6%,接近中性到牛市的邊界。更重要的是,跌破98,000美元並未觸發過度的下行對沖需求,顯示出衍生品市場的韌性。

比特幣和加密市場情緒保持謹慎

要評估情緒是否僅限於比特幣衍生品,分析中國的穩定幣需求至關重要。當交易者退出加密貨幣市場時,美元穩定幣通常以折扣價交易,與官方人民幣匯率相比。相反,在牛市期間,穩定幣可能以1.5%或更高的溢價交易。

目前,美元穩定幣(USDT)以0.7%的折扣交易於官方美元/人民幣匯率,這顯示出適度的賣壓。然而,這比最近幾天的1.5%折扣有所改善。這一趨勢自1月19日以來一直顯著,當時比特幣重新回到105,000美元的水平,經過30天的低於該阻力位的波動。

來自衍生品市場的數據顯示,專業交易者對比特幣在100,000美元以上的表現保持謹慎樂觀,並相對舒適。然而,中國的整體加密貨幣需求仍然疲弱。外部因素可能對市場情緒造成壓力。

其中一個因素是全球經濟放緩的跡象,這使得投資者對風險資產保持謹慎。此外,12月27日中國AI公司DeepSeek的競爭導致人工智能股票的疲軟,進一步加劇了拋售。儘管比特幣與科技股的歷史相關性較低,但傳統市場的不確定性上升使得交易者減少風險。

對於長期比特幣投資者而言,前景仍然是“半滿的”。最終,投資者可能會轉向像比特幣這樣的稀缺資產,以對抗通脹的中央銀行政策。然而,在短期內,比特幣達到新高的可能性似乎較低。

在這篇文章中,我們看到比特幣的短期波動和市場情緒之間的複雜關係。市場的反應不僅受到技術因素的影響,還受到宏觀經濟環境的驅動。隨著AI技術的快速發展,競爭壓力可能會影響到整體市場的情緒。未來,投資者需要更加關注這些外部因素,並在不確定的市場中尋找機會。

以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。

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Two playful cats, one sleek black and one fluffy ginger, are joyfully interacting on a bustling Hong Kong street at sunset. They leap and tumble among vivid neon signs, glowing red lanterns, and traditional market stalls. The scene is bustling with locals and dotted with elements of Hong Kong architecture, such as narrow alleyways, decorative shopfronts, and overhead laundry lines. Warm golden light reflects off the wet cobblestone street, casting dramatic shadows. The atmosphere is lively yet whimsical, capturing the vibrant urban spirit and blending realistic feline anatomy with a touch of enchanting artistry. Rendered in hyper-detailed, cinematic style with rich colors and dynamic composition. Ultra-detailed pastel kawaii cosplay portrait of a woman [image uploaded] character, posed with hands gently pressed together under her chin in a soft, doll-like gesture; vivid long wavy hair in split-gradient lavender and pink with styled curled ends; straight bangs dyed pastel lavender; decorative accessories throughout the hair including pastel bows, lace ribbons, small charms, and a frilled white lace headpiece with pink accents; makeup: heavy kawaii style with saturated pink eyeshadow, pink blush extending across cheeks and nose, glossy pink lips, heart-shaped cheek stickers, and large contact-lens-enhanced eyes; outfit: pastel pink lace wrist cuffs with big bows and heart embellishments, soft pastel clothing with ribbons and frills; background: dreamy soft-focus bokeh in shimmering pink tones creating a magical fairytale atmosphere; lighting: bright soft diffused beauty lighting with zero harsh shadows, high exposure pastel glow, smooth porcelain skin texture, ultra-saturated colors, whimsical fantasy aesthetic, high-resolution portrait photography. Negative: no real-person likeness, no watermark, no text, no distortion, no extra limbs, no deformed face, no realism unless stylized, no background objects.