比特幣突破94K失敗,背後原因揭秘!

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比特幣在94,000美元的反彈失敗:原因分析

比特幣的價格行為本週表現平平,儘管交易者對美國貨幣政策和加密市場的長期展望轉為樂觀,但比特幣在94,000美元的嘗試再次遭遇拒絕。隨著聯邦儲備局將利率下調0.25%,比特幣在90,000美元附近進行整固,市場對93,000美元以上的任何有意義的推進持續拒絕,限制了牛市的動能。

主要觀察要點:

* 一位比特幣分析師指出,流動性收縮壓制了比特幣的上行空間,減少了需求,相對於賣壓而言。
* 94,000美元至98,000美元仍然是關鍵的流動性區域,但比特幣必須避免在88,000美元以下形成看跌結構的突破。

流動性壓縮影響比特幣市場行為

根據加密分析師Darkfost的說法,比特幣的掙扎與情緒波動關係不大,更多是因為流動性下降,特別是穩定幣的流入。穩定幣進入交易所的流入量是即將進入資本的可靠信號,而目前這個信號卻顯示出紅色警報。

數據顯示,流動性顯著收縮:ERC-20穩定幣的流入量從8月份的1580億美元下降至本月的約760億美元,幾乎減少了50%。即使是長期的90天平均值也從1300億美元下降至1180億美元,確認這一趨勢並非暫時,而是結構性惡化。

這一下降直接轉化為購買力的減弱。Darkfost指出,最近的反彈並非由強勁的累積驅動,而是由於賣壓減少,這意味著市場缺乏必要的流入來維持更高的高點或捍衛關鍵支撐水平。直到新流動性回歸,比特幣的反彈可能仍然淺薄。

同時,交易者DaanCrypto補充說,整體流動性圖仍然顯示97,000至98,000美元區域是下一個重要的價格吸引區。但比特幣多次未能突破94,000美元,這是必須克服的第一個障礙,以便擴大波動性。

比特幣接近關鍵的下行閾值

從結構上看,比特幣已經連續三次未能突破93,000美元的水平。最新的拒絕形成了一個明確的擺動失敗模式(SFP),顯示出疲勞,並加強了趨勢延續的弱點。

比特幣也接近確認一個看跌的上升楔形,若價格跌破88,000美元並形成看跌結構的突破,該模式將生效。這樣的下行將暴露在84,000美元附近的外部流動性掃描,並可能向80,600美元的季度低點進一步下行,這一水平與較高時間框架圖表上的先前低效區域相符。

儘管如此,像Captain Fabik這樣的多頭交易者仍然認為,比特幣正在經歷故意的震蕩,以清除弱勢持有者。為了實現牛市的回升,比特幣必須在周線收盤時保持在90,000美元以上,理想情況下接近93,000美元,這將為多頭攻擊96,000美元的突破區域提供結構基礎,從而可能最終展開動能擴張。

評論與分析

這篇文章清晰地指出了比特幣目前面臨的挑戰,尤其是流動性問題對價格的影響。在當前的市場環境中,投資者需要更加謹慎,因為流動性不足可能會導致價格劇烈波動。此外,市場情緒的變化也顯示出投資者對未來的擔憂,這可能會進一步影響比特幣的價格走勢。未來幾周,市場是否能夠恢復流動性並突破關鍵阻力位,將成為決定比特幣能否繼續上漲的關鍵因素。

以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。

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