比特幣牛市面臨風險？七個指標警告BTC價格「周期頂部」
儘管比特幣（BTC）價格目標高企，但鏈上指標已經對投資者可能的代幣分配發出警告。
根據鏈上分析平台CryptoQuant於1月24日發佈的新研究，比特幣周期指標指數（IBCI）顯示比特幣牛市可能即將結束。
比特幣指標籃子進入「分配區域」
目前市場對2025年的比特幣價格目標普遍看好，甚至有預測稱將達到150,000美元或更高。然而，CryptoQuant的鏈上數據卻提供了不同的視角。
貢獻者Gaah在其Quicktake市場更新中總結道：「比特幣周期指標指數（IBCI）在8個月來首次達到分配區域，接近範圍的結束。」
IBCI由七個鏈上指標組成，包括一些最受歡迎的比特幣價格趨勢追蹤工具，如Puell Multiple、支出輸出利潤比率（SOPR）和淨未實現利潤/損失（NUPL）。這些指標共同提供了比特幣價格周期進展的整體概念，包括可能的宏觀頂部或底部。
Gaah指出，比特幣「可能接近一個潛在的周期頂部，但尚未有100%的確認。」
他補充道：「為了讓IBCI達到100%，公式中的所有指標都必須達到歷史分配範圍的頂部區域。對於追蹤市場底部也是如此。」
「歷史上，當IBCI達到100%時，市場往往會進入修正階段並發展成熊市，但目前的位置顯示，在確定的市場頂部之前，仍可能有增長的空間。」
比特幣Puell Multiple指標
並非所有指標都顯示比特幣牛市的危險。Puell Multiple測量每日發行的比特幣價值與其365日移動平均值的比率，目前仍穩定在6或更低的經典頂部水平以下。
IBCI也在2024年初進入了其宏觀頂部風險區域，這一短暫事件最終並未隨之而來的是持續的下行趨勢。
比特幣IBCI圖表
BTC價格可能再見90,000美元的下跌
回顧過去的比特幣價格周期，網絡經濟學家Timothy Peterson預測今年將持續擴大範圍的震蕩行為。
他在本周的X平台上預測，BTC/USD可能在回落至六位數以下的下一個局部底部之前，達到137,000美元。
「在過去的250天中，這一波牛市與2015-2017年牛市的相關性高達90%！」他表示。
早在本月，Peterson還對比特幣做出了2035年每枚1.5百萬美元的長期價格預測。
這篇文章不包含投資建議或推薦。每項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做出決策時應自行進行研究。
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在當前的市場環境中，比特幣的價格波動性和不確定性仍然是投資者需要密切關注的焦點。雖然有許多樂觀的預測，但這些指標的變化提醒我們，市場的動態是瞬息萬變的。投資者應該謹慎行事，尤其是在面對潛在的價格頂部時，保持靈活的策略和風險管理是至關重要的。此外，隨著比特幣市場的成熟，越來越多的數據分析工具將成為投資者做出明智決策的重要依據。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。
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![{
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"environment_details": {
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"background": "Commercial airplane burning, intense fire, thick black smoke, out of focus",
"ground": "Wet runway, reflecting fire"
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}](https://ssfuture.shop/wp-content/uploads/ai_gen_1765251172-300x300.png)
![{
"intro": "Create an ultra realistic 8K UHD DSLR photo based on the attached image as a reference of facial features, maintaining 100% likeness.",
"subject": {
"identity": "A stylish beautiful woman portrayed as Cleopatra performing a sacred night-time royal dance, embodying divine seduction, power, and celestial authority.",
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"pose": {
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"accessories": "A dramatic Egyptian ceremonial headpiece with gold and crystal detailing, an oversized layered gold collar necklace, sculpted crystal arm cuffs, finger armor rings, a crystal-and-gold waist belt, and delicate gold anklets accentuating her bare feet.",
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"makeup": "Ultra-glam, colorful Egyptian night makeup—bold elongated black kohl eyeliner, intense eyeshadow layered in turquoise, emerald, sapphire blue, violet, and metallic gold. Beneath the eyes, intricate ceremonial ink drawings in fine black and gold lines inspired by ancient Egyptian markings. Skin is luminous with molten-gold highlights, brows strong and defined, lips finished in a sensual nude-bronze satin."
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"props": {
"ritual_elements": [
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"Golden sistrum placed near the dance space",
"Tall ceremonial torches lining the temple floor"
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"lighting": {
"type": "Cinematic night lighting using torches, oil lamps, and subtle moonlight.",
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"camera": {
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"style": "Ultra high-fashion editorial, night temple ritual, all-crystal couture, sexy yet sacred, ancient Egyptian royalty reimagined, cinematic realism, extremely detailed, sharp, iconic"
}](https://ssfuture.shop/wp-content/uploads/ai_gen_1766006158-167x300.png)