比特幣正經歷IPO階段,市場情緒如何?




比特幣正經歷首次公開募股時刻,華爾街老手如此表示

雖然比特幣的價格似乎在橫盤整理,但宏觀分析師及華爾街資深人士Jordi Visser表示,對這種基礎資產的信心依然存在,這從ETF的批准以及比特幣網絡算力創下新高可以看出。

在一個播客的週六節目中,Visser提到,隨著早期持有者的資產轉手,新的投資者開始進入市場,這使得比特幣的供應更加分散。他形容這一過程為“首次產品提供(IPO)”的階段。

Visser指出,許多長期未動的比特幣開始流動,雖然這不是一次性的大規模拋售,而是穩步進行的。他說:“在傳統市場中,這一時刻被稱為IPO,早期信徒開始套現,創始人變得富有,風險投資者向有限合夥人回報資金。”

他強調:“集中帶來的興奮正在被分散的持有所取代。早期信徒將火炬傳遞給那些以更高價格購買並擁有不同動機的長期持有者。這就是成功的樣子,這就是比特幣的IPO。”

比特幣在整理中橫盤

比特幣的價格在過去七天內波動於$106,786至$115,957之間。Visser表示,當一家公司上市時,早期投資者開始出售其持倉,該股票通常會進行整合,即使在更廣泛的市場上升期間也是如此。

新投資者正在謹慎地累積比特幣,等待市場的分散過程完成後再進行更積極的操作。他指出:“結果是,市場在橫盤整理,這讓所有人都感到沮喪。基本面很好,市場整體在上漲,但比特幣卻在那裡靜止不動。”

Visser補充道:“這正是主要IPO後的模式,股票不會崩潰,而是進行整合。早期投資者出售,新的長期持有者累積,所有權從願景者轉移到機構手中。”

儘管價格壓力,信心依然強勁

加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數顯示,自上週三以來市場情緒持續回落,並且在前一週的平均指數中也顯示出恐懼的情緒。然而,Visser認為對基礎資產的信心依然存在,這從持續的ETF批准、比特幣網絡算力創新高以及穩定幣的增長採用可以看出。

他指出:“在熊市中,沒有買家。價格崩潰因為每個人都想退出,而沒有人想進入。但看看實際情況:比特幣正在整合,而不是崩潰。每次下跌都會被買入,價格沒有創新低,而是在一個範圍內保持。”

Visser強調:“風險資產的背離令人困惑,但基本面比以往任何時候都要強勁。持有的分佈結構從集中轉向分散,這正是比特幣從一個革命性實驗升級為持久貨幣資產所需要的。”

IPO過程將繼續進行

Visser預測,這一“IPO”階段可能會持續一段時間,通常持續六到十八個月,儘管比特幣的運行速度快於標準資產,但這一過程仍然在六個月的時間範圍內。

他指出,當這一過程結束時,可能會導致波動性降低,因為所有權將分散到更多的人手中,而不僅僅是早期持有者和創始人。

Visser最後提醒:“目前,預期將持續整合。預期比特幣將繼續讓人失望,因為它未能隨著風險資產一起上漲。預期情緒在短期內仍然會低迷,但要小心,因為不會有明確的信號。它將自然開始,因為好消息已經存在。”

這篇報道讓我們看到比特幣在當前市場中的獨特地位,尤其是在面對價格波動和市場情緒低迷的情況下,仍然有強大的基礎支持。這不僅是對比特幣的信心,更是對整個加密貨幣生態系統的信任。隨著越來越多的投資者進入市場,未來比特幣的表現值得關注。

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