比特幣突破還是黑天鵝事件?9萬美元的比特幣價格仍未追上黃金和股票高位
比特幣(BTC)牛市已經使其價格在美元計價上達到了歷史新高,但仍未能與2021年的宏觀資產紀錄相匹配。
根據金融研究資源Cubic Analytics的創始人Caleb Franzen在11月15日於X平台上的一篇帖子,他預測比特幣價格將會超越其他資產。
比特幣的宏觀突破尚未實現
比特幣雖然在第四季觸及93,500美元,並且漲幅接近50%,但在許多宏觀資產面前,BTC價格的突破仍未發生。
Franzen指出,標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100指數仍未被比特幣超越,這同樣適用於NYSE FANG+科技股指數和黃金。
他預測:“這只是時間問題,而不是可能性問題。”
對於美國股票市場,比特幣歷史上的關鍵時刻是在2021年初,甚至在BTC/USD達到69,000美元的歷史高位之前,這一高位在兩年多的時間內都未被打破。
儘管美元的歷史紀錄不斷被刷新,比特幣仍在努力在宏觀資產範疇內創造新的歷史高位。
上週,Cointelegraph報導了市場現在在黃金面前逐漸取得優勢,黃金在美元計價上已經提前幾個月創造了新的歷史高位。
當時,量化比特幣和數字資產基金Capriole Investments的創始人Charles Edwards預測,在BTC/USD突破後,將會出現“快速重新定價”。
隨後,Edwards分享了一張長期圖表,顯示黃金在2000年代的突破,當時黃金在1980年的歷史高位之下徘徊了二十年。他暗示,BTC/USD現在也可能會像黃金一樣。
比特幣價格熊市警告72,000美元“至少”
在一種戲劇性的替代觀點中,一位流行但日益臭名昭著的比特幣交易員暗示,風險資產的崩潰即將來臨。
11月15日,Il Capo of Crypto在他的Telegram頻道上發布了一張照片,暗示他預期將會出現黑天鵝事件。
雖然沒有給出具體評論,但該帖子迅速在社交媒體上傳播,許多用戶回憶起Il Capo of Crypto曾預測比特幣價格會跌至12,000美元等情況。
根據Cointelegraph的報導,對比特幣的悲觀看法不斷浮現,另一位交易員Credible Crypto最近預測比特幣價格可能會跌至50,000美元或更低。
在他最新的X分析中,Credible Crypto將72,000美元標記為需要關注的下行目標。
他寫道:“如果我們以93,800美元的高位明確突破100,000美元以上,那麼72,000美元及以下的可能性在下一個熊市之前是相當大的。如果我們只是掃過高點,未能形成最後的第五波子波,這意味著這一波動確實是修正,會大大提高我們重新測試70,000至72,000美元的幾率。”
我的觀察與評論
這篇文章清晰地表達了比特幣在當前市場環境中的不確定性與潛力。隨著比特幣價格在短期內創下新高,市場情緒卻分化為樂觀與悲觀兩派。Franzen的觀點強調了比特幣在宏觀資產中的未來潛力,而Edwards則提供了黃金歷史的參考,暗示比特幣也許能夠重現類似的突破。
然而,Il Capo of Crypto和Credible Crypto的看法則提醒我們,在這種高波動的市場中,風險隨時可能顯現,特別是當市場面臨潛在的黑天鵝事件時。這不僅僅是價格的波動,更是投資者心理的博弈。在進行任何投資決策前,深入的市場分析和風險評估都是必不可少的。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。
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