比特幣CME缺口可能降至78,000美元,因美國經濟的邊緣風險
自2025年開始,比特幣價格在上下波動。最近一次的下跌發生在1月13日,BTC價格降至89,600美元,這使市場參與者開始猜測,CME比特幣期貨缺口是否會在80,000美元以下被填補。
這個缺口是在11月9日至10日之間形成的,期貨價格從77,900美元上升了3.8%,達到80,900美元。根據CME缺口的性質和邏輯,一些交易者預測比特幣可能會很快回調至這些水平,以填補缺口。
為何交易者關注CME缺口
在傳統金融中,資產圖表上的蠟燭缺口出現在一個交易時段結束時的收盤價與下一個交易時段的開盤價之間存在差異。然而,比特幣CME缺口因比特幣在去中心化和中心化交易所中的不斷交易循環而獨具特色。這意味著當CME在週日晚上重新開盤時,BTC期貨必須考慮在週末期間發生的BTC現貨價格變動。
這個缺口可能會因金融衍生品的性質而進一步擴大,因為這些衍生品是基於對未來價格變動的預期,而不是影響現貨交易的即時市場條件。因此,當市場情緒樂觀時,BTC CME期貨的價格通常高於現貨BTC(稱為正向市場),而在情緒悲觀時則低於現貨(稱為反向市場)。
CME缺口會很快被填補嗎?
如果CME缺口被填補,BTC可能會潛在地下降至77,900美元。
高盛交易公司HighStrike的加密衍生品負責人JJ認為這一情況相當可能。
“考慮到BTC在2025年初缺乏動力,我們應該將CME缺口視為一個主要關注點,特別是在第一季度的深度回調中。目前,市場上存在許多宏觀擔憂,可能導致這種急劇拋售,例如10年期國債收益率突破自2024年4月以來一直低於4.7%的關鍵區域,而當時BTC在60,000美元區域。”
關於可能促使比特幣價格下行的其他因素,JJ表示:
“如果市場繼續因本週三的CPI報告、週四的零售銷售數據以及最終在29日的FOMC會議而定價更具限制性的美聯儲政策,我們不太可能看到比特幣繼續保持在過去兩個月大部分時間的90,000至100,000美元區間。如果在二月失去90,000美元的支持,將為CME缺口在第一季度末被填補鋪平道路。”
另一位加密交易者@heavynodes也補充了JJ的觀點,分享了一張比特幣UTXO實現價格分佈圖,並解釋說URPD“顯示出未來重新測試這一範圍的額外一致性,因為在該水平的鏈上交易量不足。”
目前現貨價格交易在短期持有者成本基礎之上9%,這表明市場仍然在牛市的典型範圍內。然而,如果市場未能重新獲得上行動力,跌破88,000美元的風險將增加,可能觸發短期壓力甚至恐慌性拋售。這種情況可能迅速將BTC價格推至約74,500美元,因為URPD圖表顯示這些水平之間的交易量顯著不足。
技術分析也支持上述情況。Biyond Trader的管理合夥人Nathan Batchelor承認BTC CME期貨可能會降至78,855美元的水平。
“儘管多次嘗試向下突破,比特幣仍保持在CME期貨的50日簡單移動平均線之上。值得注意的是,100日簡單移動平均線與CME期貨圖表上的價格缺口非常接近。如果50日簡單移動平均線失敗,並開始向下彎曲,這可能會指向增加的下行壓力。”
在這篇文章中,我們看到市場對CME缺口的持續關注,這不僅是因為它們的技術性意義,更是因為它們反映了市場情緒的變化。隨著美國經濟環境的不確定性加劇,投資者應該謹慎行事,並密切關注即將發布的經濟數據。這些數據不僅影響比特幣的價格,也可能對整個加密市場產生深遠的影響。
以上文章由特價GPT API KEY所翻譯及撰寫。而圖片則由FLUX根據內容自動生成。
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