ISM製造業PMI顯示比特幣周期可能超出歷史常規
比特幣的市場周期可能會延長，因為ISM製造數據持續疲弱，暗示著宏觀環境的持續壓力和商業復甦的緩慢。
美國供應管理協會（ISM）的製造業採購經理指數（PMI）歷來與比特幣市場周期的主要高峰相一致——如果這一模式重演，這次的周期可能會比往常更長。
ISM PMI與比特幣價格之間的相關性最早由Real Vision的Raoul Pal提出，並在宏觀經濟導向的加密分析師中逐漸受到重視。
分析師Colin Talks Crypto指出，“過去三次比特幣周期的高點大致與這個每月波動的指數相吻合”，他提到比特幣市場高點與PMI周期高點之間的重疊。
Colin補充道，如果這一關係成立，“這將表明比特幣周期的持續時間將大幅超過通常的周期。”
ISM製造業PMI衡量美國工業活動，已連續七個月低於中性50的標誌，顯示出收縮的跡象。若能持續突破50，將暗示經濟的重新擴張，這在歷史上與比特幣價格的強勁表現有關聯。
今年早些時候，PMI曾短暫攀升至50以上，但隨後又回落至收縮區間，突顯出製造業的持續疲弱。
美國製造業在關稅和需求疲弱中掙扎
製造業PMI在年初顯示出商業情緒的強勁反彈，部分歸因於對即將上任的特朗普政府的樂觀預期及其商業友好的政策預期。
然而，高關稅、不確定的貿易政策和全球需求疲軟的持續壓力對該行業造成了拖累，可能延長商業周期而非加速其發展。
ISM的最新報告顯示，九月份PMI略有上升，但價格上漲的同時，進出口卻出現收縮，顯示出製造業各子行業的條件不均。
儘管存在疲弱的情況，ISM指出，製造業在美國經濟總產出中的比例不斷縮小，這意味著PMI的收縮不一定會導致經濟衰退。ISM曾觀察到，持續高於42.3的讀數通常與更廣泛經濟的增長相對應。
來自運輸設備行業的一位採購經理在九月份告訴ISM，“業務仍然受到嚴重抑制”，並提到利潤縮水和“極高的稅收”——即關稅，已提高了供應鏈的成本。
他們補充道：“我們面臨著對原材料和客戶產品的價格壓力，因為公司開始通過附加費將關稅轉嫁，價格上漲高達20%。”
這些數據和觀察不僅反映了當前經濟的脆弱性，也引發了對比特幣未來表現的深思。隨著宏觀經濟環境的不確定性加大，比特幣是否能夠在這種情況下繼續吸引投資者，將成為市場關注的焦點。未來，投資者可能需要更加關注經濟指標的變化，因為它們可能會直接影響比特幣的價格走勢。
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