比特幣回落,但市場關注將重返!




比特幣從2025年的「最熱門交易」中回落,但關注將會回歸:亞歷克斯·索恩

根據Galaxy Digital的亞歷克斯·索恩表示,比特幣正進入一個更為「成熟的時代」,這對資產來說是健康的,並將會重新吸引投資者的注意。

在今年年初,對比特幣的樂觀情緒相當強烈,但Galaxy Digital的研究主管索恩認為,這種熱度可能不會持續太久。他在周五接受CNBC訪問時指出:“比特幣的關注會回來,這總是如此。”他強調,在唐納德·特朗普贏得美國總統選舉後,比特幣在年初曾是「年度最熱門交易」。

投資者的注意力轉向其他領域

索恩提到,投資者的注意力已轉向人工智能、核能、量子技術和黃金等領域。他表示:“今年有很多其他地方可以獲得收益,這影響了對比特幣的資金配置。”

他補充說:“我們正進入一個更為成熟的時代,從老手到新手的資產分配對比特幣的擁有權分佈非常健康。”

儘管索恩對比特幣的長期前景仍持樂觀態度,但他將Galaxy Digital的年終價格預測從185,000美元下調至120,000美元。根據CoinMarketCap的數據,這一價格目標相較於目前比特幣的價格102,080美元,代表著約17%的增幅。

黃金和量子計算的影響

索恩提到的許多吸引投資者注意力的領域,尤其是黃金,恰恰是與比特幣經常比較的對象。摩根大通的分析師最近表示,黃金在十月創下歷史新高期間的波動性上升,使得這種貴金屬風險增加,而比特幣則變得對投資者更具吸引力,因為比特幣與黃金的波動性比率降至1.8,這意味著比特幣的風險是黃金的1.8倍。

至於人工智能,報導指出,比特幣和Nvidia股票(NVDA)現在的走勢比過去一年中的任何時候都更為一致。這讓一些市場觀察者擔心,可能會出現類似1990年代末網絡泡沫的崩潰。

同時,關於量子計算對比特幣的潛在威脅的討論仍在持續分裂專家意見。Borderless Capital的阿米特·梅赫拉最近表示,量子計算距離對比特幣構成威脅仍有多年時間。然而,量化比特幣和數字資產基金Capriole的創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲則認為,情況更為緊迫,並主張行業必須儘快實施解決方案,否則將為時已晚。

這篇文章引發了我對比特幣未來的深思。隨著市場的變化,投資者的注意力不斷轉移,這不僅反映了比特幣本身的波動性,也顯示出市場對新興技術的興趣。比特幣作為一種資產,是否能夠在這樣的環境中保持其吸引力,將取決於其能否適應這些變化並提供足夠的價值。尤其是在與黃金等傳統資產的比較中,比特幣的獨特性和風險特徵需要被重新評估。未來的幾個月將是關鍵,市場的反應將決定比特幣是否能夠重新獲得投資者的青睞。

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