半導體股未來展望：2025年增長受限！

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Jefferies預測2025年半導體行業上升空間有限，Infineon成為首選

根據Jefferies的分析師報告，半導體股票在2024年出現了顯著增長，但預計這一增長將在2025年達到瓶頸。該行業受到AI數據中心需求激增的推動，2024年費城半導體指數整體上升超過19%。特別是，Nvidia的股價去年上漲了171%，其AI優化芯片成為市場熱議的焦點。

Jefferies的分析師認為，儘管預期半導體股票在“3月至4月”期間會達到約24%的年增長率，但在2025年，大多數芯片股票的上升潛力應該會相對有限。他們指出，由於PC、智能手機、通用服務器、物聯網、消費電子和網絡等主要終端市場的需求仍然疲弱，且庫存水平較低，因此不預測今年會出現下行周期。相反，他們預測半導體周期將在2025年保持健康的雙位數增長。

分析師表示，半導體股票的價格趨勢預計將“平穩”，接下來12個月的走勢將取決於投資者對這些公司的收入和盈利增長前景的信心。

在具體股票方面，分析師表示，他們更看好荷蘭晶圓製造商ASM，認為其在高級邏輯芯片支出上最具受益潛力，且對中國市場的波動影響較小。他們指出，儘管ASML在2025年風險較小，但要達到2026年的預期，需要每季度獲得50億至60億歐元的訂單，然而這一目標可能受到主要客戶三星的影響，因為三星在為Nvidia提供高端芯片的過程中面臨額外成本。

這份報告凸顯出半導體行業未來的挑戰。儘管AI技術的興起為市場帶來了短期機會，但長期的需求疲軟和市場不確定性可能會限制行業的增長潛力。尤其是在全球供應鏈的複雜性和地緣政治風險日益加大的背景下，半導體公司需重新評估其市場策略，以應對潛在的挑戰。

在這樣的環境下，投資者應該更加謹慎，仔細分析各大公司的基本面，尤其是在2026年的盈利預測上，這將是影響股價走勢的關鍵因素。對於希望在半導體領域尋求投資的人士來說，選擇那些在技術創新和市場適應能力上具備優勢的公司將是明智的決定。

以上文章由特價GPT API根據網上資料所翻譯及撰寫，過程中沒有任何人類參與 🙂

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