以太坊短期風險:比特幣對沖策略解析

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10x研究:將以太坊做空作為比特幣對沖

10x研究指出,隨著比特幣吸引了大量機構資本,以太坊面臨結構性風險,這使得ETH成為投資者在市場謹慎時期的一個潛在做空機會。

隨著比特幣繼續吸引機構的資金,以太坊相關的企業開始資金緊張,這使得該資產成為投資者用來對沖數字資產市場風險的一個潛在選擇。這是最近一份10x研究報告中的主要觀點之一,該報告認為將以太坊做空可能是對比特幣的明智對沖。

根據報告,比特幣仍然是機構投資的主要焦點,而以太坊則顯示出結構性弱點。分析師表示,圍繞以太坊的“數字資產庫存”論述使得機構累積ETH,然後再將其分配給散戶投資者,但這一模式在缺乏透明度的私募股權披露和資金流動不確定的情況下開始崩潰。

10x研究引用了財庫公司BitMine作為案例,指出其策略使機構投資者能夠以平價累積ETH,然後以溢價分配給散戶,這一反饋循環持續推高價格。

研究人員還指出幾個技術指標,顯示如果以太坊在$3,000附近的支撐失敗,其價格可能會急劇下跌,潛在跌至約$2,700。

研究人員表示:“我們還注意到,周線隨機指標顯示出明顯的頂部信號,而多年的楔形形態顯示出虛假突破,與2025年3月的虛假下破相似。”

以太坊財庫公司在市場風險中仍然看漲

根據行業數據,目前有15家以太坊專注的數字資產財庫公司,共持有470萬ETH。BitMine是最大的,擁有約330萬ETH,接下來是SharpLink,持有約859,853 ETH,還有Bit Digital,持有150,244 ETH。

儘管以太坊市場近期波動,包括美國現貨交易所交易基金(ETF)需求減少,BitMine的董事長Tom Lee仍然保持看漲的觀點。上個月,他重申了以太坊價格可能在今年達到$10,000的看法,並認為該資產自2021年以來已經建立了穩固的基礎。

儘管Lee的樂觀情緒,但在10月10日的崩盤後,市場普遍感到謹慎,這次崩盤導致約190億美元的加密貨幣頭寸被清算,成為有紀錄以來最大的清算事件。自那以後,以太坊及整個數字資產市場都難以重新獲得動力。

這篇報告揭示了在數字資產市場中,投資者如何利用以太坊的結構性風險來對沖比特幣的投資。這不僅反映了市場的複雜性,也顯示出投資者在面對不確定性時的策略調整。隨著市場環境的變化,投資者必須保持靈活,並密切關注各種資產之間的相互關係,以便做出明智的投資決策。

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