【貿戰風雲】Home Depot調低盈利預測 料假期消費疲弱

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Home Depot調低全年盈利預測，暗示假日前消費趨於疲弱

美國家居裝修零售巨頭Home Depot於週二公佈季度業績後，調低全年盈利預測，原因是關稅引發的經濟不確定性，令大型裝修及DIY（自己動手做）項目的需求減弱，未能達到華爾街預期。

作為全球最大的家居裝修連鎖企業，Home Depot的業績報告為本週多家大型零售商，包括沃爾瑪（Walmart）和塔吉特（Target）等的財報季揭開序幕。投資者密切關注美國消費者在關鍵假日季節前的消費情況，尤其是在關稅推高成本的背景下。

Home Depot行政總裁Ted Decker表示：「我們相信消費者的不確定性以及房地產市場持續承壓，對家居裝修需求造成了不成比例的影響。」與Home Depot同屬行業對手的Lowe’s亦面臨需求疲弱，因市場擔憂勞動力市場放緩及經濟不明朗，削弱了美國央行降息後按揭利率下降所帶來的利好預期。

對於需要融資的裝修工程，例如廚房翻新、浴室升級和地板更換等，過去數季的需求一直偏低。

Home Depot和Lowe’s的股價在盤前交易中分別下跌約2%。Lowe’s預計將於週三公布業績。

Home Depot將2025年度調整後每股盈利預測下調5%，較之前預計的同比下跌2%更為悲觀。該公司亦將2025年同店銷售增長預期由8月時的1%調整為「略有正增長」。

不過，Home Depot截至11月2日的第三季度銷售額達到413.5億美元，略高於市場預期的411億美元。調整後每股盈利為3.74美元，低於預期的3.84美元。

評論與分析

Home Depot此次調低盈利預測，反映出美國消費市場在關稅和經濟不確定性雙重壓力下，消費者的購買力和信心正受到明顯影響。家居裝修及DIY項目通常被視為經濟狀況的晴雨表，因為這類消費往往屬於非必需且較為彈性的支出。當經濟前景不明朗或借貸成本高企時，消費者往往會推遲或取消這些計劃。

此外，房地產市場的冷卻亦進一步抑制了需求。儘管美國央行降息帶來一定的按揭利率緩解，但整體勞動力市場的疲弱和經濟增長放緩預期，令消費者更趨謹慎。這種情況下，即使是大型零售商如Home Depot和Lowe’s，也難以避免銷售增長放緩。

這一局面對於即將到來的假日購物季節尤為關鍵。假日季是零售業全年最重要的銷售時期，消費者支出的放緩可能會對整體經濟復甦帶來負面影響。投資者和市場參與者需密切關注接下來其他零售商的財報，以判斷美國消費市場的真正走向。

從更宏觀的角度看，Home Depot的表現提醒我們，全球貿易政策和關稅措施對企業和消費者的影響不容忽視。政策的不確定性不僅抬高了成本，更擾亂了消費者的信心和行為模式。未來若要促進經濟穩健增長，如何在貿易政策和市場需求之間取得平衡，將是各國政府和企業需要共同面對的挑戰。

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