【貿戰風雲】油價企穩等美中新一輪貿易談判

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油價持穩 靜待美中貿易談判結果

彭博社報導，2025年6月9日 – 原油價格在上周大漲後趨穩，市場靜待新一輪的美中貿易談判結果。

布倫特原油價格穩定在每桶66美元上方，較上周漲4%。西德克薩斯中質原油（WTI）價格則徘徊在每桶65美元附近。美國和中國的談判代表將於周一在倫敦舉行談判，市場寄望兩大經濟體能在今年困擾市場的爭端上取得進展。

今年以來，原油價格已下跌11%，主要受累於貿易緊張局勢升級可能阻礙全球經濟增長，進而打擊能源需求。同時，OPEC+聯盟加快生產步伐，超出預期，令市場擔憂下半年將出現石油供應過剩，進而壓低價格。

儘管總統唐納德·特朗普第二任期以來，原油價格有所下跌，但自5月中旬以來，價格波動已減弱，交易商正在權衡貿易談判的進展跡象、北半球夏季駕駛季節需求增加以及伊朗和俄羅斯的地緣政治風險。

北京SDIC Essence期貨有限公司首席能源分析師高明宇表示：「如果英國會議繼續釋放樂觀信號，可能會減弱貿易戰對經濟的負面影響。在OPEC+ 7月產量增加的短期看跌影響被消化後，改善的宏觀情緒、強勁的季節性需求和持續的地緣政治風險都提供了支撐。」

布倫特原油期貨價格自5月中旬以來一直在4美元以內的區間內波動，波動率指標接近4月初以來的最低水平。同時，布倫特原油近期價差近期擴大，呈現看漲格局。

作為編輯，我認為這篇文章揭示了當前原油市場的微妙變化。美中貿易談判的結果將對全球經濟和能源市場產生深遠影響。投資者需要密切關注談判進展，以評估原油價格的未來走勢。同時，OPEC+聯盟的生產政策和全球經濟形勢也將是影響原油價格的重要因素。

此外，我注意到近期原油價格的波動率已降低，市場呈現相對穩定的狀態。然而，這並不意味著市場風險的消失。交易商仍需謹慎應對潛在的市場波動，特別是在地緣政治風險和全球經濟形勢不確定性增加的情況下。

總的來說，原油市場目前處於一個微妙的平衡狀態，美中貿易談判、OPEC+生產政策和全球經濟形勢都將是影響市場的重要因素。投資者需要保持警惕，密切關注市場動態，以做出明智的投資決策。

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