【貿戰風雲】日本經濟急縮0.7% 特朗普關稅壓力山大

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Base Setup

keep 100 percent facial information adherence of the attached image and turn her into a fashion model walking through a dim stone tunnel toward a bright exit, captured as a live action photograph or movie still, not an illustration or CGI render. Her styling leans seductive and attractive through fashion, attitude, and mood rather than explicit content.

Shot and Camera

Full body silhouette shot from behind at slightly low camera height, matching the original perspective and narrow tunnel framing. Keep her stride, tunnel curvature, and vanishing light exactly as seen.

Identity and Pose

Preserve her height impression, slim silhouette, hair length, and body proportions. She walks forward with one hip subtly angled, natural arm swing, confident stride, and a slow, sensual rhythm. Her head tilts slightly as if aware of being watched. Include 8k Photorealistic and hyper realistic.

Lighting and Environment

Strong backlight from the tunnel exit creates a glowing rim around her body, with soft, scattered reflections on the wet stone floor. The tunnel remains dark with textured stone irregularities and real moisture streaks. Add subtle haze for realism and keep the environment grounded with accurate shadows and surface wear.

Masking and Constraints

Change only the outfit and styling, keep lighting, perspective, white balance, pose, face geometry, body proportions, and silhouette the same. Absolutely no added text, no cartoon look, no CGI sheen, no plastic skin, no floating feet, and no overly clean backgrounds. Maintain consistent perspective, grounded contact shadows, film like grain, and full live action realism.
A male model, dressed in a brown bomber jacket, dark trousers, is perched on the edge of a fire escape platform. One leg dangles freely while the other is bent. He looks contemplatively into the distance. Monogrammed duffel bag rests nearby. Urban street background, soft ambient lighting.
Keep the face 100% exact same as I uploaded no alteration, no blurry.
Create a hyper-realistic 8K close-up body portrait of a female model, using the uploaded photo as the exact facial reference. Maintain 100% accuracy of the facial features — do not alter or modify any aspect of the face. Render the skin texture, lighting, and overall composition with photo-realistic detail, ensuring lifelike color tones and natural depth of field. A man with his original hair is sitting casually on a white cube, smiling warmly at the camera. He is wearing a cream-colored cable-knit sweater, blue jeans, and brown loafers. His legs are crossed, with one hand resting on his knee.
The background reveals a cozy and festive living room. A large, beautifully decorated Christmas tree with numerous warm lights and gold ornaments stands prominently behind him. Several wrapped gift boxes are visible at the base of the tree. To his left, another smaller decorated Christmas tree and a wreath on the wall further enhance the holiday atmosphere. The lighting is soft and inviting, creating a warm and welcoming scene.

日本經濟收縮加劇,美國關稅威脅進一步衰退

日本經濟在2025年第一季度的收縮幅度比預期更為嚴重,這引發了對該國脆弱復甦的警示,並加大了政策制定者面對美國即將對重要出口行業徵收關稅的壓力。根據政府於星期五發布的初步數據,1月至3月期間,日本實際GDP按年率計算收縮了0.7%,遠高於市場預期的0.2%下降。

按季度比較,GDP下降了0.2%,這是日本一年來首次季度收縮。這種疲軟主要由於國內消費停滯及出口下降所致,這些因素早於美國總統唐納德·特朗普於4月2日宣布對日本商品徵收廣泛關稅之前就已存在,包括將於7月生效的24%徵稅,除非達成貿易協議。

私人消費占日本經濟產出的一半以上,與預期的0.1%增長相比持平。外部需求使整體GDP下降了0.8個百分點,因為出口下降了0.6%,而進口上升了2.9%。

「由於出口和消費疲軟,日本經濟缺乏增長動力。它非常容易受到如特朗普關稅那樣的衝擊。」第一生命經濟研究所高級執行經濟學家新家義貴表示。「數據可能會引發對更大財政支出的呼聲。」他補充道。

資本支出帶來了小幅上升的驚喜,增長1.4%,對GDP貢獻了0.7個百分點。然而,分析師警告說,貿易緊張局勢加劇和家庭情緒疲弱可能進一步抑制增長。

「我們必須注意美國關稅政策對經濟的下行風險。」經濟振興部長赤澤良正表示,同時指出工資上漲可能成為緩衝。「持續價格上漲對消費和家庭情緒的打擊也是增長的風險。」他說。

GDP平減指數較上年同期上升3.3%,連續第二個季度加速,這表明企業正在將更多成本轉嫁給消費者,可能會抑制需求。與此同時,嚴重依賴美國市場的日本主要汽車製造商已經顯示出壓力。豐田警告說利潤將下降20%,而馬自達則因政策不確定性而拒絕發佈前瞻性指引。

法國巴黎銀行首席經濟學家河野龍太郎告訴法新社,「特朗普關稅大大增加了不確定性,經濟放緩趨勢可能會從第二季度開始變得更加明顯。」

日本央行在1月結束了負利率政策,將利率提高至0.5%,寄望於工資增長和溫和復甦。但在最近一次會議上,由於包括美國保護主義在內的全球逆風,央行大幅下調了經濟增長預期。

這篇文章揭示了日本在全球貿易緊張局勢下的脆弱性,尤其是在美國施加關稅的背景下。日本的經濟結構過於依賴出口,而消費市場的疲軟進一步削弱了其內部增長動力。這種情況下,日本可能需要重新考慮其經濟政策,尤其是在全球化的挑戰面前,如何提升內需和多元化出口市場,減少對單一市場的依賴。這不僅是日本,也是全球其他出口導向型經濟體需要面對的共同課題。